A Study on the Structural Changes and Development Trends of Anhui Province's Youth Population in the Context of Low Fertility Rates
Structural changes in the youth population(14 to 35 years old)will not only determine the future structural changes in the adult and elderly populations,but will also have an important impact on future economic and social development.Based on the four population census data from 1990 to 2020,the structural change and development trend of the youth population in Anhui Province is analyzed by using the age shift calculation model.The study found that the size and proportion of the youth population in Anhui Province in the four censuses from 1990 to 2020 showed a"double-decline"situation,with a decrease of more than 6 million in 2020 compared with in 1990,and the sex ratio of the youth population in the lower age group of 14 to 19 was particularly high.It is ex-pected that the youth population will continue to decline further in the future,and the rate of decline will not slow down;in 2055,the province's youth population will be less than 13 million.At the same time,the development of the youth population in Anhui Province is also faced with such outstanding problems as declining willingness to marry,weakening of the concept of family procreation,expanding scale of outflow,and imbalance between urban and rural distribution.In response to the above problems,it is recommended that in the future,the supporting sys-tem of fertility policy be continuously improved,the cost of child bearing and rearing be reduced,and youth-de-veloping cities focusing on fertility-friendliness and employment promotion be actively constructed in order to pro-mote the balanced development of the youth population in Anhui Province.
youth populationpopulation structureage shift modelpopulation development
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
