信息量确定系数耦合模型的地质灾害易发性评价——以铜陵义安区为例
Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on the Coupling of Information Value and Certainty Factor Model in Yi'an District of Tongling
宫传刚 1倪大志 1余敏 2赵建 3田雨4
作者信息
- 1. 安徽理工大学空间信息与测绘工程学院,安徽 淮南 232001;安徽理工大学矿山采动灾害空天地协同监测与预警安徽普通高校重点实验室,安徽 淮南 232001;安徽理工大学矿区环境与灾害协同监测煤炭行业工程研究中心,安徽淮南 232001
- 2. 安徽理工大学矿区环境与灾害协同监测煤炭行业工程研究中心,安徽淮南 232001
- 3. 安徽省地质矿产勘查局321地质队,安徽 铜陵 244033
- 4. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏 徐州 221116
- 折叠
摘要
目的 为研究地质灾害所带来的人员伤亡和财产损失等问题.方法 以铜陵义安区为例,选取坡度、地形起伏度、工程地质岩组、距断层距离、斜坡结构、归一化植被指数(NDVI)6个评价因子,采用信息量模型(I)、确定系数模型(CF)及I-CF耦合模型建立义安区地质灾害易发性评价体系,利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对模型进行对比和分析.结果 坡度、地形起伏度对义安区地质灾害易发性评价影响程度较大的主要因子;信息量模型、确定系数模型、I-CF耦合模型的AUC值分别为0.890、0.884、0.913,说明,I-CF耦合模型预测精度优于另外两种单一模型.结论 研究表明,采用I-CF耦合模型在义安区地质灾害易发性评价结果中效果更好,中、高易发区主要分布于南部、东南部及西部丘陵山区,主要涉及天门镇、顺安镇、新桥办事处、钟鸣镇及五松镇,该区域主要以矿业开发和城镇建设为主,同时地形起伏相对较大,植被覆盖较高,采矿现象普遍,灾害点比较集中,其中,采空塌陷地质灾害主要分布于天门镇、钟鸣镇和顺安镇一带,多为矿山早期开采遗留的老采空区导致,可对当地政府进行地质灾害防范工作具有重要指导意义.
Abstract
Objective To investigate the human casualties and financial losses caused by geological disasters.Meth-ods By taking Yian District of Tongling City as a case study,six evaluation factors,including slope,topographic relief,engineering geological rock group,distance to fault,slope structure and normalized difference vegetation in-dex(NDVI)were selected to establish an evaluation system for the susceptibility of geological disasters in Yian District,which utilized the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves to compare and analyze the Informa-tion Value model(I),Certainty Factor model(CF)and I-CF coupling model.Results Slope and topographic re-lief emerge as the principal factors significantly affecting the susceptibility assessment of geological disasters in Yian District.The AUC values of the information quantity model,coefficient of determination model and 1-CF coupling model were 0.890,0.884,and 0.913,respectively,indicating that the predictive accuracy of the I-CF coupling model surpassed that of the other two individual models.Conclusion The study demonstrates that emplo-ying the I-CF coupling model yields superior results in evaluating the susceptibility of geological disasters in Yian District.The medium and high susceptibility zones are primarily concentrated in the southern,southeastern and western hilly areas,notably involving Tianmen Town,Shun'an Town,Xinqiao Office,Zhongming Town and Wusong Town.These areas are primarily characterized by mining development and urban construction,with rela-tively significant terrain undulations,high vegetation coverage,widespread mining activities and concentrated dis-aster points.The collapse geological disasters mainly occur in the areas surrounding Tianmen Town,Zhongming Town and Shun'an Town,largely attributed to the remnants of old mining areas left over from early mining activi-ties.This study holds significant guiding implications for local governments in their efforts toward geological disas-ter prevention and mitigation.
关键词
信息量模型/确定系数模型/地质灾害/易发性评价Key words
information value model/certainty factor model/geological hazard/susceptibility assessment引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52304157)
安徽理工大学引进人才科研启动基金资助项目(2022yjrc29)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据