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商丘市冬小麦晚霜冻灾害综合风险分析

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[目的]明确商丘市冬小麦晚霜冻灾害综合风险时空分布特点,为指导晚霜冻灾害防灾、减灾措施制定与实施提供决策依据.[方法]选取河南省商丘市7 个代表气象站点1970-2019 年的气象数据及所在区域的冬小麦种植与生长资料,确定冬小麦拔节期及晚霜冻发生指标,通过对晚霜冻灾害发生的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性、承灾体脆弱性以及灾害综合风险等的分析,进而对商丘市冬小麦晚霜冻灾害发生特征特性进行分析.[结果](1)1970-2019 年间,商丘市中部地区冬小麦轻霜冻和重霜冻的发生频率均较低,而东部地区重霜冻发生频率普遍要高于西部地区.(2)从冬小麦晚霜冻灾害综合风险角度看,商丘市东部的永城冬小麦晚霜冻灾害综合风险指数最高,其次是东部的虞城和南部的柘城,而中部的商丘晚霜冻灾害综合风险指数最低.[结论]因此,商丘市东、南部地区冬小麦晚霜冻灾害综合风险相对要高.在实际生产中,应重点关注高风险区的晚霜冻灾害防御工作,以减少晚霜冻灾害带来的损失.
Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Late Frost Disasters to Winter Wheat in Shangqiu City
[Objective]It is to clarify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the comprehen-sive risk of late frost disasters to winter wheat in Shangqiu City,and provide decision-making basis for guiding the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures for late frost disasters.[Method]We selected meteorological datas from seven representative meteorological stations in Shangqiu City of Henan Province from 1970 to 2019,as well as the winter wheat planting and growth da-tas in the region,to determine the winter wheat jointing period and late frost freezing occurrence indica-tors.By analyzing the hazard of disaster causing factors of late frost disasters,the exposure to pregnant disaster environment,the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body,and comprehensive risk of disasters,the characteristics of the occurrence of late frost disasters to winter wheat in Shangqiu City were analyzed.[Result]The results indicated as follows:(1)From 1970 to 2019,the frequency of light and heavy frost to winter wheat in the central region of Shangqiu City was relatively low.The frequency of heavy frost in the eastern region of Shangqiu City was generally higher than that in the western region.(2)From the perspective of comprehensive risk of winter wheat late frost disasters,the comprehensive risk index of late frost disasters of winter wheat in Yongcheng in the eastern part of Shangqiu City was the highest,followed by Yucheng in the eastern part and Zhecheng in the southern part,while the comprehensive risk index of late frost disasters in the central part of Shangqiu was the lowest.[Conclusion]Therefore,the comprehen-sive risk of late frost disasters of winter wheat is relatively high in the eastern and southern regions of Shangqiu City.In actual production,special attention should be paid to the prevention of late frost disas-ters in high-risk areas to reduce the losses caused by late frost disasters.

winter wheatlate frost freezingrisk analysisShangqiu City

陈博文、邱美娟、檀艳静、任伟

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天津农学院 农学与资源环境学院,天津 300392

周口市气象局,河南 周口 466000

冬小麦 晚霜冻 风险分析 商丘市

江西省气象科技项目日喀则市科技计划项目

JX2022Z03RKZ2023ZR-008

2024

湖南生态科学学报
湖南环境生物职业技术学院

湖南生态科学学报

影响因子:0.341
ISSN:2095-7300
年,卷(期):2024.11(2)