Testing of Numerical Forecast Products for"4·23"Blizzard Weather Process in Huangnan Region
[Purposes]In this paper,through the numerical model test analysis of the blizzard weather on April 23,2022,the forecast ability of various numerical forecast products for blizzard is tested by com-parison,so as to achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of local blizzard forecast.[Methods]This blizzard weather process(cumulative snowfall≥10 mm in 24h at four national stations and regional auto-matic stations)was selected.The synoptic analysis and comparative analysis were used,and three mod-els of EC-thin,CMA-3KM and CMA-GFS were used to test and evaluate the blizzard case.[Findings]①Compared with the situation field,CMA-GFS model is more stable and accurate than EC in predicting the plateau trough,which is basically consistent with the reality,and the closer the EC is,the more accu-rate the sub-forecast is.From the point of view of the trough moving speed,both models predict that the trough moving speed is faster than the real one.②The 24-hour precipitation forecast test showed that EC model was significantly better than CMA-GFS model in grasping the fall area and intensity,and the pre-diction effect was the best near the time.③The general precipitation accuracy forecast CMA-3KM,the most stable method,has the best reference,and its accuracy is above 70%;the accuracy of the three mod-els of blizzard is not stable,and the forecast effect of the nighttime blizzard at 08:00 is better than that at 20:00.[Conclusions]CMA-3KM has a better precipitation forecast effect,but the stability is not high.EC model is better than CMA_GFS model in grasping the fall area and intensity of precipitation,and the closer time approaches,the better forecast effect it has.
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