Numerical Forecast Test of Winter and Spring Snowfall in Eastern Tibet
[Purposes]Through the test and analysis of the 24-hour observation of snowfall in 11 towns in Qamdo from 2018 to 2020,the sunny/rainy and various magnitudes were analyzed,in order to provide reference for the revision of numerical model precipitation forecasting products.[Methods]According to the"Measures for Quality Inspection of Medium and Short Term Weather Forecasting"issued by the China Meteorological Administration,the forecast effect of EC,CMA-GFS fine grid mode on winter and spring precipitation in Qamdo was tested by sunny/rainy and 24 hours,and TS cumulative precipitation was scored.[Findings]① The accuracy of EC fine grid for 11 sites in Qamdo was higher than that of CMA-GFS model.②The prediction accuracy of 24 h,48 h,72 h in Karuo District,Wuqi and Ding Qing in EC fine grid,the results show that forecast accuracy＞false rate＞missing report rate.And in other stations,the results show that false rate＞forecast accuracy＞missing report rate.The results of 24 h,48 h and 72 h sunny and rainy forecast tests of the CMA-GFS model all show that false rate＞forecast accuracy＞missing re-port rate.[Conclusions]Both modes have certain reference indicators for the prediction ability of small snow magnitude models in Karuo District,Ding Qing and Wuqi.The EC fine grid mode has a certain reference indication on the forecast ability of the medium snow magnitude model.The CMA-GFS model has little predictive capability.
winter and springnumeric modeinspectionEastern Tibet
万方数据
维普
