国家公路里程预测模型建立与研究
Establishment and Research of National Highway Mileage Prediction Model
张思琪1
作者信息
- 1. 长安大学长安都柏林国际交通学院,陕西 西安 710086
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]在交通强国建设背景下,交通发展由依靠传统要素驱动向注重创新驱动转变,前瞻规划、科学预测成为国家交通建设的前提和基础.[方法]以2006-2020年国家统计局发布的公路里程为基础数据,运用指数法、对数法、多项式法、幂函数法建立预测模型.[结果]经过对比与检验,结果表明,6次多项式拟合预测模型最优,通过增加新增年度数据可对其进行优化.[结论]添加年度新增数据的6次多项式预测模型可以为国家公路建设规划提供参考.
Abstract
[Purposes]Under the background of building a powerful transportation country,the transporta-tion development has changed from relying on traditional factors to focusing on innovation.Forward-looking planning and scientific forecasting have become the premise and foundation of national transpor-tation construction.[Methods]Based on the data of highway mileage published by the National Bureau of Statistics from 2006 to 2020,the prediction models are established by index method,linear method,logarithmic method,polynomial method and power function method.[Findings]After comparison and testing,the results show that the 6-degree polynomial fitting prediction model is the best,and it is opti-mized by adding new annual data.[Conclusions]The 6-degree polynomial prediction model with added annual new data can providereferencefor national highway construction planning.
关键词
公路里程/多项式/预测/模型Key words
highway mileage/polynomial/forecast/model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据