Evaluation of Loess Landslide Susceptibility in a Certain Area of Yili Based on Logistic Regression Model
[Purposes]The frequent occurrence of landslide-based geological disasters in Yili area has brought serious casualties and property losses to the local area,and the situation of disaster prevention and control is very serious.[Methods]In this paper,a loess area in Yili Prefecture,Xinjiang is taken as the research area.Nine factors,including elevation,slope,slope direction,slope position,distance from road,distance from river,distance from fault,average annual rainfall and NDVI,are selected as landslide impact factors.The evaluation index system of landslide susceptibility is established,and the distribution law of factors and landslides is analyzed.The logistic regression model is used to evaluate the susceptibil-ity of landslide disasters in the study area.Finally,the evaluation results are verified by ROC curve.[Findings]The results show that the landslide in the study area is distributed in the area with an eleva-tion of 1 400～2 000 m,a slope of 10°～30°,an eastward slope,a middle slope and an upper slope,a dis-tance from the fault of 0～1 000 m,a NDVI index of 0.7～0.8,a rainfall of 350～360 mm,and a distance from the river less than 300 m.High-prone areas and extremely high-prone areas are mainly distributed in a low hilly area between the Piliqing River and the Gilgerang River;the accuracy of logistic regression model is high,and the AUC value of ROC curve is more than 80%.[Conclusions]The landslide distri-bution law and susceptibility evaluation results obtained in this paper can provide reference for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation and engineering construction planning in this area.
loess landslidesusceptibilityevaluationlogistic regressiona certain area of Yili
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