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高速公路交通事故与气象条件的关系研究

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恶劣天气是高速公路交通事故发生的重要诱因.为了解气象条件对高速公路交通事故的影响程度,基于2006-2008年汉宜高速公路交通事故数据,统计分析了该路段交通事故的月际和日变化特征,利用事故率和日交通事故指数区分定义了交通事故频次和灾害严重程度,采用多项式曲线拟合了气象条件与事故指数的关系,确定了事故突发增长的临界气象指标.结果表明:汛期5-9月是汉宜高速公路交通事故高发时期,冬季其次,春季3-4月及秋季10-11月事故发生较少.高速公路交通事故存在明显日变化特征,03-04时和14-17时为事故高发时段.汉宜高速公路交通事故频率主要受中到大雨和夏季高温天气的影响,事故灾害严重程度主要受强降水和冬季低温天气的影响.大风强降水天气条件下的事故率要高于一般强降水条件下的事故率,夏季潮湿、闷热天气条件下的事故率要高于一般高温天气条件下的事故率.当高速公路沿线平均日雨量达到中到大雨时,事故率达到高峰;当沿线平均雨量超过20 mm时,事故灾害突发严重.当公路沿线平均高温超过33℃时,事故率突发增长;0~3℃的低温对事故灾害程度影响较大.
Study on the Relationship Between Highway Traffic Accidents and Meteorological Conditions
Bad weather is an important inducement that causes highway traffic accidents.In order to understand the impact of meteorological condition on highway traffic accidents,based on the traffic accident data on Hanyi highway from 2006 to 2008,its' monthly and daily variation characteristics on the highway were analyzed by the accident rate and daily traffic accident index,the relationship between meteorological condition and accident index was carried on using polynomial curve fitting and the critical meteorological indicator of sudden accident was determined.The results showed that,flood season (May to September) was the Hanyi highway traffic accidents prone period,then in winter,spring (March to April) and autumn (October to November) the accident occurred less.Highway traffic accidents had characteristics of diurnal variation,the time of 03-04 and 14-17 are the accident prone periods.The traffic accident frequency was mainly affected by moderate to heavy rain and high temperature of summer,while the severity of traffic accident was mainly affected by the strong rainfall and low temperature in winter.Compared with the general rainfall weather,the accidents occurred more frequently when both the wind and precipitation were severe.With the same high temperature in summer,higher humidity usually caused higher accident occurrence frequency.Traffic accident happened more frequently under the wet and cold conditions than the common cold day.When the average rainfall reached more than 20 mm,the accident severity suddenly rose.When the summer temperature reached 33 ℃,accident rate began to grow rapidly.When winter minimum temperature reached 0 ℃ to 3 ℃,accident disaster was worse.

traffic accidentdiurnal variation characteristicsmeteorological conditioncritical meteorological indicatortraffic accident indexhighway

白永清、何明琼、刘静、祁海霞

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中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205

湖北省气象科技服务中心,武汉430205

武汉中心气象台,武汉430074

交通事故 日变化特征 气象条件 临界气象指标 交通事故指数 高速公路

湖北省气象局科技发展基金中国气象局华中区域气象中心科技发展基金

2013Q07QY-Z-201305

2015

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2015.38(2)
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