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冬小麦不完善粒气象条件危险性指数研究

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为探明气象条件对河南省冬小麦籽粒不完善粒的影响,利用2008-2021年河南省不同地市冬小麦收获期大田测定的不完善粒资料和对应气象资料,利用最小显著性差异法、Person相关分析、权重系数等方法,分析出气象条件影响不完善粒的关键时段和主导气象因子,并构建了气象条件危险性指数I.结果表明:冬小麦成熟前20天内的气象条件对籽粒不完善粒有重要影响,其中豫南麦区主要受成熟前10天内的气象条件影响.不同地区不完善粒受不同气象因子的组合作用,总降水量R和总降水 日数D为共性主导因子,豫东麦区还受成熟前平均气温T主导,北中西部麦区还受成熟前 日照时数S和气温 日较差Td主导.豫南麦区成熟前10天内连续降水日数超过3天、总降水量超过70 mm、总降水日数大于6天时,籽粒不完善粒>8%的可能性较高;各麦区I>5.8时,冬小麦不完善粒气象条件危险性高.
Study on the Risk Index of Meteorological Conditions for Defective Grains of Winter Wheat
To investigate the impact of meteorological conditions on defective grains of winter wheat in Henan Province,based on the field measurements of defective grains and the corresponding meteoro-logical data collected throughout the winter wheat harvest season in various regions and cities of Henan Province from 2008 to 2021,this article identifies the critical period and key meteorological factors that affect defective wheat grains by using the methods of minimum significant difference,Person correlation analysis and weight coefficient,and constructs a meteorological condition risk index I.The findings indi-cate that defective wheat grains are significantly affected by the meteorological factors during the first 20 days in the mature stage of winter wheat,and the southern Henan wheat region is primarily confined by the meteorological conditions in the first 10 days of wheat maturity.The defective grains in different regions are influenced by a combination of different meteorological factors,with total precipitation R and total precipitation days D being the common dominating factors.Besides,the eastern Henan wheat region is also affected by the mean temperature T before the wheat maturity,while the diurnal temperature range Td and sunshine hours S are also the dominant factors in the wheat regions of the central,northern and western parts of Henan.In the southern Henan wheat region,the probability of a>8%crop failure is increased when the number of consecutive rainfall days exceeds 3,the total precipitation exceeds 70 mm,and the total precipitation days exceed 6 within the 10 days before the wheat gets matured.In addition,the probability of meteorological conditions for defective grains of winter wheat is substantial when the I value surpasses 5.8 in each wheat region.

winter wheatdefective grainweight coefficientrisk indexdominant meteorological factor

成林、郭康军、申晓晴、商东耀

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中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州 450003

河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003

周口市气象局,河南周口 466000

冬小麦 不完善粒 权重系数 危险性指数 主导气象因子

河南省科技研发计划联合基金中国气象局创新发展专项

222103810096CXFZ2023J060

2024

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2024.47(1)
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