2023年河南麦区连阴雨过程的数值模式精细化检验评估

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万方数据
维普

中文摘要：基于河南省2706个自动气象站降水观测资料及欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、中国气象局的中尺度模式预报产品(CMA-MESO)和华东区域气象中心的中尺度模式预报产品(CMA-SH9),从不同量级降水的TS评分和BIAS评分、误差空间分布特征及典型区域预报偏差日变化特征等方面,检验评估了 2023年5月25 日至6月5日河南省麦收关键期连阴雨过程的数值模式小时降水预报效果.结果表明:ECMWF对Rh(小时降水量)≥0.1 mm/h的预报表现好,CMA-SH9对Rh≥2 mm/h和Rh≥5 mm/h的预报效果较优,CMA-MESO预报性能较差.对于Rh≥2 mm/h,CMA-SH9对上午和夜间的降水预报效果较优,ECMWF对中午到夜里的预报表现好.各模式都表现出在降水量大值区预报偏差大的特点.CMA-SH9对第一阶段的平均有效降水频次预报与实况最为接近,尤其在西部山区;ECMWF则对第二阶段的预报更贴合实况.尽管此次连阴雨过程中各模式小时降水量和小时降水强度的平均值偏差较大,但并没有表现出显著偏强或偏弱的特征;对于有效降水频次占比预报,ECMWF和CMA-MESO在大多数时次的预报分别表现出显著偏多或显著偏少的特征,CMA-SH9的预报则与实况更为接近.

外文标题：Refined Evaluation of Numerical Model Forecasts for the 2023 Continuous Rain in the Wheat-planting Region of Henan Province

外文摘要：Based on precipitation observations from 2706 automatic weather stations in Henan Prov-ince and forecast products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the Meso-scale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO),and the Meso-scale Numerical Prediction Model of the East China Regional Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration(CMA-SH9),we test and evaluate the hourly rainfall forecast effect of the numerical models for the continuous rain process that occurred in the critical period of wheat harvest in Henan Province from May 25 to June 5,2023,from the aspects of TS score and BIAS score of precipitati-on with different magnitudes,the spatial distribution characteristics of errors,and the daily variation characteristics of typical regional forecast deviations.The results show that ECMWF performs well in pre-dicting rainfall Rh≥0.1 mm/h,CMA-SH9 performs better for Rh ≥ 2 mm/h and Rh ≥ 5 mm/h,but CMA-MESO performs poorly in the precipitation prediction.For Rh≥2 mm/h,CMA-SH9 makes good prediction for the morning and night precipitation,while ECMWF does better in predicting the noon to night precipitation.All the models have the significant biases in predicting large-value zones of precipita-tion.The average effective precipitation frequency forecast by CMA-SH9 in the first stage of rainfall is the closest to the observations,especially in the western mountainous areas.ECMWF's forecast for the sec-ond-stage precipitation is more realistic.Although the average deviation of hourly precipitation and hourly precipitation intensity by all models are large during the continuous rain process,there are no distinctly stronger or weaker characteristics.As for the proportion prediction of effective precipitation frequency,ECMWF and CMA-MESO show significant characteristics of more or less at most times,while the CMA-SH9 forecast is much closer to the observation.

外文关键词：

continuous rainverificationhourly precipitationwheat harvest period

作者：

马蕴琦、栗晗、吕林宜

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作者单位：

中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州 450003

河南省气象台,郑州 450003

安阳国家气候观象台,河南安阳 455000

关键词：

连阴雨检验评估小时降水麦收期

基金：

安阳国家气候观象台开放研究基金中国气象局预报复盘总结专项河南省科技研发计划联合基金中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室应用技术研究基金中国气象局创新发展专项

项目编号：

AYNCOF202308FPZJ2024-078222103810091CXFZ2022J014KM202103CXFZ2023J017

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2024.01.008

气象与环境科学

河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD

影响因子：1.28

ISSN：1673-7148

年,卷(期)：2024.47(1)

参考文献量22