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河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险评估

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基于河南省24个农业气象观测站1981-2020年冬小麦发育期资料和91个气象观测站1961-2020年逐日气象观测资料、冬小麦产量资料,统计了河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨过程均 日数、过程均雨量、过程均 日照时数、年均过程次数及多年发生频率,利用主成分分析法构建了连阴雨风险强度指数,从发生频率、风险强度指数、产量损失率对河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨开展风险评估.结果表明:河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨过程均 日数、过程均日照时数、年均过程次数空间上均呈带状分布;构建的连阴雨风险强度指数对连阴雨灾害有较高的识别能力;连阴雨灾害发生频率、风险强度指数均呈纬向型分布,南部偏高、北部偏低;河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨中、低风险区占比90.3%,高风险区主要分布在南阳东部地区.
Disaster Risk Assessment of Continuous Rain Weather in Winter Wheat Grain-filling Period in Henan Province
Based on the winter wheat growth data from 24 agrometeorological stations in Henan Prov-ince from 1981 to 2020 and the daily meteorological observations from 91 meteorological stations and win-ter wheat yield from 1961 to 2020,the average days,precipitation and sunshine hours of continuous rain process as well as the annual average frequency and the multi-year frequency of continuous rain process during the grain filling period of winter wheat in Henan are counted.The risk intensity index of continu-ous rain is constructed by means of the principle component analysis,and the risk assessment of continu-ous rain during grain-filling stage of winter wheat is carried out from the perspectives of occurrence fre-quency,risk intensity index and yield loss rate.The results show that the continuous rain average days,average sunshine hours and average annual frequency during the winter wheat grain-filling period in Henan all present a zonal distribution in spatial scale.The constructed risk intensity index of continuous rain has higher ability to identify continuous rain disasters.The frequency and risk intensity index of con-tinuous rain disasters both are zonally distributed,higher in the south and lower in the north.In Henan Province,the medium and low risk areas of continuous rain during grain-filling stage of winter wheat ac-count for 90.3%,and the high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the eastern part of Nanyang.

winter wheatcontinuous raingrain-filling stagerisk assessment

檀艳静、成林、郭康军

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中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州 450003

周口市气象局,河南周口 466000

河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003

冬小麦 连阴雨 灌浆期 风险评估

河南省科技研发计划联合基金中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室应用技术研究基金

222103810096KL202408

2024

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2024.47(1)
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