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池州地区冬季固态降水相态判别指标研究

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采用池州站地面气象观测资料,遴选出2003-2019年冬半年固态降水过程.根据T-mode主成分分析(TPCA)法,将冬半年环流形势分为一槽一脊型(Ⅰ型)、纬向波动型(Ⅱ型)和两槽一脊型(Ⅲ型).其中,Ⅰ型的占比最多(45.2%),Ⅱ型的次之(28.8%),Ⅲ型的占比最少(25.9%).池州地区固态降水主要受中路冷空气影响.统计固态降水过程中的4种降水相态:雨、雨夹雪、雪、直接降雪,共得到降雨样本43个,雨夹雪样本54个,降雪样本39个,直接降雪样本52个,分别统计其出现时间;再根据箱线图法,使用ERA5资料中的高空各层温度、0 ℃高度、厚度层结,以及气象观测站的地面温度等进行分析,得出判别指标,并进行检验.结果表明:t1000hPa<0 ℃、t925hPa<-3℃、t850hPa<-3 ℃且t2m<0.8 ℃时会出现雨转雪;t1000hPa<-1.3 ℃和t850hPa<-5.7 ℃时为直接降雪;中低层普遍存在逆温;0 ℃层高度<260 m时基本为纯雪,0℃层高度>266 m为雨;H700-850hPa雨雪转换临界值为154 dagpm,153 dagpm以下为直接降雪,H850-1000hPa<129 dagpm为纯雪,128 dagpm以下时为直接降雪;雨夹雪判别指标不明,其中地面气温效果相对较好.
Study on Phase Discrimination Index of Winter Solid Precipitation in Chizhou,Anhui Province
Based on the surface meteorological observation data from Chizhou station,the solid pre-cipitation processes in the winter half year of 2003-2019 are selected.According to T-mode principal component analysis(TPCA),the circulation situation in the winter half year is divided into three types:the one trough and one ridge type(Type Ⅰ),the zonal fluctuation type(Type Ⅱ)and the two troughs and one ridge type(Type Ⅲ).Type Ⅰ accounts for the largest proportion(45.2%),Type Ⅱ takes the second place(28.8%),and Type Ⅲ has the lowest percentage(25.9%).The solid precipitation in Chizhou region is mainly affected by the mid-way cold air.Four kinds of precipitation phases in the process of solid precipitation are summed up:rain,sleet,snow and direct snowfall.The gained sample numbers are 43 for rainfall,54 for sleet,39 for snowfall and 52 for direct snowfall,and their occurrence times are counted respectively.Then,according to the box-line plot method,the upper-air temperature of different layers,0 ℃ height,thickness stratification in ERA5 data and the ground temperature at the mete-orological stations are used for analysis,and the discrimination indexes are obtained and tested.The results show that when t1000hPa<0℃,t925 hPa<-3 ℃,t850hPa<-3 ℃ and t2m<0.8 ℃,rainfall tends to turn to snowfall;when t1000hPa<-1.3 ℃ and t85ohPa<-5.7 ℃,direct snowfall will occur.Temperature inversion generally exists in the middle and low layers.When 0 ℃ layer height is<26 0 m(>266 m),it is basi-cally pure snow(rain).The critical value of height for the conversion of rain and snow is 154 dagpm at H700-850hPa,for direct snowfall is below 153 dagpm,for pure snow at H850-1000hPa is below 129 dagpm and for direct snowfall is below 128 dagpm.The discrimination index of sleet is not clear,but the effect of ground temperature is relatively good.

precipitation phaseT-mode principal component analysisdiscrimination indexbox-line plotthickness stratification

孙卉、吴语燕、宣普、蔡茶花、王惠、张明明

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池州市气象局,安徽池州 247100

青阳县气象局,安徽青阳 242800

降水相态 T-mode主成分分析 判别指标 箱线图 厚度层结

安徽省气象局预报员专项(2020)

kY202008

2024

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2024.47(2)
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