气象与环境科学2024，Vol.47Issue(2) ：79-85.DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2024.02.010

基于气候适宜度指数不同权重系数确定方法的茎瘤芥产量预报准确率比较

Accuracy Comparison of Yield Prediction of Brassica Juncea Var.Tumida Based on Climate Suitability Index With Different Weighting Coefficient Determination Methods

武强 马家良 张悦 蔡国强 徐倩倩
气象与环境科学2024，Vol.47Issue(2) ：79-85.DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2024.02.010
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  • 维普
  • 万方数据

基于气候适宜度指数不同权重系数确定方法的茎瘤芥产量预报准确率比较

Accuracy Comparison of Yield Prediction of Brassica Juncea Var.Tumida Based on Climate Suitability Index With Different Weighting Coefficient Determination Methods

武强 1马家良 2张悦 1蔡国强 3徐倩倩4
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆 401147
  • 2. 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气象信息与技术保障中心,重庆 401147
  • 3. 重庆市铜梁区气象局,重庆 402560
  • 4. 合肥市气象局,合肥 230041
  • 折叠

摘要

利用绝对值法、归一化法、相关系数法确定各旬气象条件对茎瘤芥产量影响的权重系数,从而得到不同权重系数确定方法的气候适宜度指数,基于气候适宜度指数与气象影响指数,建立茎瘤芥产量动态预报模型.结果表明,绝对值法与归一化法作为茎瘤芥气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法,在实际应用中存在一定局限,相关系数法权重系数计算得到的气候适宜度指数能够更好地反映茎瘤芥产量受气象条件影响的变化情况.相关系数法作为气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法的产量预报模型,在各起报时间模型均通过方程有效性检验,回代检验结果显示,不同起报时间的产量预报准确率平均值为92.0％,归一化均方根误差平均值为0.195,丰歉趋势准确率平均值为70.3％.外推检验显示,相关系数法作为气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法的产量预报模型,除个别起报日期,其产量预报准确率均表现为90.0％以上的较高水平.丰歉趋势准确率总体较好.说明在利用气候适宜度指数进行产量预报时,相关系数法是一种适用性和准确性较高的权重系数确定方法.

Abstract

In this study,methods of absolute value,normalization,and correlation were used to ob-tain the weight coefficients of the influence of meteorological conditions on the yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida.The dynamic yield prediction model was established based on the meteorological influence index and climatic suitability index with different weight coefficient determination methods.The results showed that the methods of absolute value and normalization as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index have limitation in practical application,while the climatic suitability index calculated by the weight coeffi-cient of correlation method could better reflect the change of yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida affected by meteorological conditions.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coeffi-cient of climate suitability index has passed the validity test.The average prediction accuracy,average root mean square error of homogenization and average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend of back-sub-stitution test results with different starting time was 92.0％,0.195,and 70.3％,respectively.Extrapola-tion test showed that the prediction accuracy of the dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index was greater than 90.0％,except for a few starting dates.The bumper or poor harvest trend was accurate.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index had high applicability and accuracy.

关键词

产量预报/气候适宜度指数/绝对值法/归一化法/相关系数法/茎瘤芥

Key words

yield prediction/climatic suitability index/absolute value method/normalization meth-od/correlation method/brassica juncea var.tumida

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基金项目

重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202213)

重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项(cstc2020jscxmsxmX0111)

重庆市气象部门智慧气象技术创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-202016)

重庆市气象局科技项目(QNJJ-201703)

出版年

2024
气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.28
ISSN：1673-7148
参考文献量21
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