Dynamic Meteorological Assessment of Abundance and Deficiency in Spring Maize Yield Based on Theoretical and Empirical Model
To conduct impact assessment of meteorological elements and quantitative assessment of yield trend at different growth stages of maize,this paper uses the daily precipitation,temperature and wind speed data from April to September in 1983-2018,which were collected at 50 meteorological sta-tions in Jilin Province,and the yearly maize yield data of each county in the same period in dividing the full growth stage of spring maize in Jilin Province into five stages based on the natural rhythm of growth and development of spring maize and the principle of fuzzy mathematics.A theoretical empirical yield dy-namic assessment model based on meteorological elements of these stages is established.The model fully considers the impact proportions of key meteorological elements(precipitation,temperature and wind)on yield in each growth stage,regional differences,comprehensive effects of meteorological elements and their cumulative effects at each growth stage,and can output the assessment results of expected abun-dance and deficiency of yield at each growth stage.The fitting test and trial show that the output results of the model are more objective and practical.The output results of the evaluation model in high yield and low yield years are more consistent with the actual yield,and the evaluation results for the late stage are much closer to the actual yield than the evaluations for the early and middle stages.The evaluation effect for the central semi-humid and semi-arid area and the eastern cold humid mountainous area is slightly better than that for the western semi-arid area.
spring maizemeteorological elementsabundance and deficiency assessmentdynamic modelJilin Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
