首页|地基微波辐射计露点温度廓线估算方案及初步应用

地基微波辐射计露点温度廓线估算方案及初步应用

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面向业务和台站实际,针对露点温度直接和间接计算经验公式的不确定性,结合地基微波辐射计LV2级数据特征,开展了露点温度估算方案适用性及应用讨论,旨在为预报员提供高时空分辨率的基础物理量露点温度来判识大气饱和程度,服务于强对流天气预报预警分析.研究表明:(1)相对湿度是主导露点温度直接和间接计算公式计算结果差异的敏感因子.地基微波辐射计露点温度估算方案可为相对湿度小于50%时,采用直接计算公式;相对湿度为50%~99%时,采用间接计算公式;相对湿度为100%(饱和)时,温度大于-48.75℃,采用间接计算公式,温度小于-48.75 ℃,采用直接计算公式.(2)地基微波辐射计估算的露点温度产品精度保持了温度产品的高相关性,较大程度上改善了系统偏差,但离散程度略有扩大.其中,相关系数由0.99变成0.98,降低了 0.01;系统性偏差由-3.18℃变成-0.98 ℃,缩小了 2.2 ℃;均方差由4.92 ℃变成5.26 ℃,扩大了 0.34℃.(3)相较相对湿度,估算的露点差对高湿区(相对湿度大于70%以上)较为"敏感",能很好地"勾勒"出云等水凝物内部水汽饱和状态及其特征结构,便于用户判断出饱和区、非饱和区及两者过渡区;与地基微波辐射计直接测量产品联合,可监测强对流天气发生前、中、后水凝物垂直结构特征及其演变,便于天气预报预警,其中预警提前量可达0.5~1.0 h,降水结束预报提前量接近10 min.
Estimation Scheme and Preliminary Application of Dew Point Temperature Profile of Ground-based Micro wave Radiometer
In view of the uncertainty of direct and indirect empirical formulas for dew point tempera-ture,this paper discusses the applicability of dew point temperature estimation scheme based on charac-teristics of ground-based microwave radiometer data and its preliminary application.The purpose is to pro-vide the basic physical dew point temperature with high spatial-temporal resolution for forecasters to deter-mine the degree of atmospheric saturation,and to serve severe convective weather warning.The results show that:(1)Relative humidity is the sensitive factor for the difference between the direct and indirect calculation formula of dew point temperature.The dew point temperature estimation scheme based on LV2 data of ground-based microwave radiometer can be as follows:when the relative humidity is less than 50%,the direct calculation formula is used;when the relative humidity is between 50%and 99%,the indirect calculation formula is used;when the relative humidity is 100%(saturation),the temperature is warmer(colder)than-48.75 ℃,the indirect(direct)calculation formula is used.(2)The precision of dew point temperature products estimated by ground-based microwave radiometer keeps high correlation of temperature products,improving the system deviation to a large extent,but the dispersion degree is slightly expanded.Among them,the correlation coefficient changes from 0.99 to 0.98,reduced by 0.01 slightly;the systematic deviation changes from-3.18 ℃ to-0.98 ℃,reduced by 2.2 ℃;the mean deviation changes from 4.92 ℃ to 5.26 ℃,increased by 0.34 ℃.(3)Compared to relative humidity,the estimated dew point difference is more"sensitive"to the high humidity area(the relative humidity is more than 70%),and can well"outline"the saturation state and characteristic structure of water vapor in clouds and other hydrometeors.This is helpful for users to visually see the saturated area,unsaturated area and the transition area between them.Combined with ground-based microwave radiometer measure-ment products,the dew point temperature estimation scheme can monitor the vertical structure character-istics of hydrometeors before,during and after the occurrence of severe convective weather,which is a good reference for making weather forecast and early warning.The lead time of early warning can reach 0.5-1.0 h,and that of the end of precipitation forecast can reach 10 min.

microwave radiometerdew point temperatureestimation schemesevere convective weather

刘俊、周红根、安克武、吴泓、丁仁惠

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泰州市气象局,江苏泰州 225300

中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,南京 210008

江苏省气象探测中心,南京 210008

新疆气象技术装备保障中心,乌鲁木齐 830002

南京气象科技创新研究院,南京 210008

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微波辐射计 露点温度 估算方案 强对流天气

国家自然科学基金气象联合基金南京气象科技创新研究院北极阁开放研究基金江苏省气象局挂帅揭榜项目

U2342216BJG202107KZ202304

2024

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2024.47(2)
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