首页|气候变化下中国西南地区雷电活动随地形因子的动态变化

气候变化下中国西南地区雷电活动随地形因子的动态变化

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我国西南地区多山林,生态环境复杂且脆弱,近年雷电灾害凸显.雷电活动与地形因子息息相关,且随气候变化而变化.基于2005-2017年全球闪电定位网WWLLN资料,结合地表高程数据DEM和历史气象信息,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验、多元线性回归等方法,分析了西南地区雷电与地形因子的关系,探索气候变化下雷电活动随地形因子的变化趋势.结果表明:(1)2005-2017年西南地区雷电频次呈显著增加趋势.空间上总体呈东南高、西北低的特点.(2)2005-2017年雷电活动主要集中在海拔为400 m左右、坡度为0°-5°的丘陵、低坡区,并随海拔、坡度升高而减少,但在海拔3500-5100 m、坡度为40°的高山、急坡段出现小峰值.偏东坡闪电频次大于偏西坡的.(3)随着气候变暖,西南地区雷电活动出现抬升、转移现象.受海拔400-500 m最低气温升高(0.11 ℃·a-1)、0°-5°低坡区相对湿度增加(0.09%·a-1)的影响,海拔400-500 m、0°-5°低坡区的闪电占比减少,减少率分别为0.20%·a-1和0.38%·a-1,减少部分主要抬升到海拔为3500-5100 m、坡度为10°-25°的地形段.受偏东坡相对湿度增加(0.15%·a-1)、西坡年降水量增加(9.68 mm·a-1)的影响,东坡、东北坡闪电占比减少,减少率为0.08%·a-1,减少部分主要转移到西坡.
Dynamic Variation of Lightning Activity in Southwest China with Topographic Factors under the Background of Climate Change
The southwestern part of China,where lightning disasters have become prominent in re-cent years,is a mountainous area with complex and fragile ecological environment.Lightning activities are closely correlated to topographic factors and vary with changing climate.Based on the WWLLN data in 2005-2017 as well as the DEM data and historical meteorological data,this paper analyzes the rela-tionship between lightning and topographic factor in Southwest China by means of Mann-Kendall trend test and multiple linear regressions,and also explores the variation trend of lightning activity with topographic factor under the situation of climate change.The results show that:(1)The lightning frequency in South-west China presented a significantly increasing trend from 2005 to 2017.In terms of spatial distribution,the lightning frequency was high in the southeast and low in the northwest of the region.(2)During 2005-2017,lightning activities were mainly concentrated in the hilly and low-slope areas with elevation about 400 m above sea level(asl.)and slope of 0° to 5°,decreasing with the rise of elevation.Howev-er,a small peak value appeared in the high mountains and steep slope sections with elevation being 3500-5100 m asl.and slope of 40°.(3)With the warming climate,lightning activity in Southwest China was uplifted and shifted.Under the influence of the increased lowest temperature(growth rate:0.11 ℃·year-1)in the elevation 400-500 m asl.and the increased relative humidity with growth rate of 0.09%·year-1 in the slope of 0°-5°,the proportion of lightning decreased by 0.20%·year-1 and 0.38%·year-1 at elevation of 400-500 m asl.and slope of 0°-5°,respectively.The decreased part was mainly added to the elevation of 3500-5100 m asl.and slope of 10°-25°,respectively.Affected by the increased rela-tive humidity with growth rate 0.15%·year-1 on the slope by east and the increased annual precipitation(9.68 mm·year-1)on the western slope,the proportion of lightning on the eastern and northeastern slopes were reduced by 0.08%·year-1,and the reduced part was mainly transferred to the western slope.

lightningtopographic factorclimate changeSouthwest China

侯波、杨艳蓉、李盈萱、鲁坦、李岩松

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南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南京 210037

南京林业大学江苏省南方现代林业协同创新中心,南京 210037

天津市气象服务中心,天津 300074

雷电 地形因子 气候变化 西南地区

国家自然科学基金项目

31971671

2024

气象与环境科学
河南省气象局

气象与环境科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.28
ISSN:1673-7148
年,卷(期):2024.47(3)
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