Study on Phenological Stage Prediction of Tree Peony Based on Growing Degree Days
By using the experimental data of tree peony observed at the test field of Luoyang Peony Research Institute and the daily meteorological data in 2017-2019,the phenological characteristics of 13 different peony varieties are analyzed.Then,a model of the physiological development period based on the growing degree days is established,and finally the model simulations are verified by root mean square error(RMSE)and normalized root mean square error(NRMSE).The results show that:(1)The base-point temperature is 3.6 ℃ in the scale cracking and in the bud revealing stages of tree peony,5.6℃in the twigging period,6.8 ℃ in the bud standing period,7.8 ℃ in the small bell-like flowering period,8.6 ℃ in the large bell-like flowering period,8.8 ℃ in the round peach period,12.9 ℃ in the normal peach period and 13.4 ℃ in flawing period.(2)Based on the above base-point temperatures,a dynamic simulation model is built for the growth of tree peony in different phenological periods.The growing de-gree days of tree peony in different phenological stages are 13.8 ℃·d in the scale cracking period,14.3 ℃·d in the bud revealing period,12.8℃·d in the bud twigging period,12.8 ℃·d in the bud standing period,13.5 ℃·d in the small bell-like flowering period,14.2 ℃·d in the large bell-like flowering period,59.5 ℃·d in the round peach period,10.3 ℃·d in the normal peach period and 10.1℃·d in the flawing period,respectively.(3)Based on the growing degree day indices and com-bined with the simulated phenological period of peony from air temperature data,the root mean square error(RMSE)of the simulated value and the actual value of each phenological period is verified to be about 2.6 d on average,and the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)is 3.3％.These findings suggest that the model could be applied to the prediction and simulation of the phenological period of peony.
tree peonyphenological stagesimulation modelgrowing degree day
万方数据
维普
