Evaluation and Estimation of Extreme Climate Index in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins Based on CMIP5 Models
Based on the observation data of 260 regional stations in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from 1976 to 2005 and the data of 16 extreme climate index grid points simulated by 19 CMIP5 global cli-mate models,this paper evaluates the extreme climate indices simulated by each model and multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 by using the methods of spatial correlation coefficient and root mean square error.Moreover,changes of extreme climate indices in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in 2016-2045 and 2071-2100 projected by CMIP5 model ensemble under RCP4.5 scenario are also studied.The results show that:(1)The simulation results of 11 CMIP5 models have high spatial correlation coefficient with site observation.CCSM4 and CMCC-CM have the best simulation results of TXx;ACCESS1-0,MPI-ESM-LR,MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M have good simulation ability for TNn;ACCESS1-0 and CM-CC-CM have good simulation ability for Rx1day.(2)CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can well reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of R95p,R99p and CDD in 1976-2005,but their simulation re-sults of GSL,CSDI and extreme climate intensity indices differ greatly from the site data.(3)In the ex-treme climate indices projected by CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 scenario,TXx will generally rise by about 1 ℃ in 2016-2045,TNn will rise by more than 1.8 ℃ in northern Anhui and eastern Henan,and the high growth areas of Rxlday and Rx5day will be concentrated in northern Henan.From 2071 to 2100,TXx and TNn will increase by more than 2.1 ℃,and the difference of the increment between Rx1day and Rx5day stations will get weakened.
extreme climate indexCMIP5Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin
万方数据
维普
