Study on Risk Warning Method of Rainfall-induced Geological Disasters in Sichuan Province Based on Probability Model
Early warning of geological disaster risk induced by precipitation is one of the important means to reduce geological disaster risk.In this study,geographical zoning is carried out based on the historical data of Sichuan geological disasters from 2008 to 2019.Then Sichuan is divided into seven geo-logical disaster zones by the information model with terrain,rock-soil,vegetation and climate as factors.With the normalized effective precipitation of geological disaster as the modeling factor,the probability model of precipitation inducing geological hazard in each zone is established by means of Gaussian fitting,and the early warning test of geological disaster is performed.The results show that:(1)Sichuan can be divided into seven geological disaster zones,including the low,medium and high risk areas in the basin and surrounding mountains,the sub-and-high risk areas in the southwest mountains,and the sub-and-high risk areas in western Sichuan Plateau.(2)The analysis of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve shows that the accuracy of geological hazard zoning in the basin and surrounding mountain area is slightly lower than that in the southwest mountain area and the western Sichuan Plateau area.(3)There is a good Gaussian distribution relationship between the normalized effective precipitation and the frequency of geological disasters.(4)The probability model of precipitation inducing geological disaster could reach a predicted success of 72％.When the precipitation that day is ≥10 mm,the success rate of geological disaster early warning is 83％.
geological disasterrisk early warningeffective precipitation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
