Using meteorological data,maize yield and phenology data from 1986 to 2016 in Fumeng county located in the west of Liaoning Province,as well as the similar year method of yield's bumper or poor harvest(SY),critical meteorological factors method(CF)and crop model method(CM),we ana-lyze the maize yield tendency accuracy and quantitative forecast accuracy comparatively.The results show that the SY method can predict maize yield dynamically,but the accuracy of predicting maize yield trend by maximum probability method and weighted analysis method is lower in the range of 33.3%-66.7%.The forecast accuracy of the weighted analysis method is higher than that of the maximum probability method,but the overall accuracy of the two methods is not high and the performance is unstable,so they cannot meet the needs of forecasting operation.In contrast,the CF method increases the forecast accuracy of maize yield in 2014 and 2015,during which precipitation was less than in normal years.The tendency accuracy of maize yield forecast for 2014 and 2015 reaches 100%and the average forecast accuracy is 89.5%.In terms of the CM method,with the delay of prediction date,the forecast maize yield is closer to the actual yield,and the forecast accuracy of normal precipitation years is higher than that of drought years.In conclusion,combining CF and CM methods to predict maize yield in the west of Liaoning Prov-ince is an effective solution for the maize yield forecasting in semi-arid regions.With the combined method of the two,the average forecast accuracy of maize yield for 2011-2016 reached 91.6%,which can satisfy the needs of forecasting operation.
关键词
半干旱区/关键气象因子/产量丰歉相似年/作物模型/预报准确率
Key words
semi-arid region/critical meteorological factor/similar years of yield's bumper or poor harvest/crop model/forecast accuracy
维普
万方数据