Determining Forecast Index for Low-temperature of the Daily Maximum Temperature Before the Flowering of Golden Osmanthus in Taizhou by Stepwise Approach Method
Determining Forecast Index for Low-temperature of the Daily Maximum Temperature Before the Flowering of Golden Osmanthus in Taizhou by Stepwise Approach Method
As the city flower of Taizhou City,Osmanthus ornamentation and picking need to be fore-casted at the beginning of flowering.Using the data of Golden Osmanthusis flowering and daily maximum temperature of Taizhou City from 2006 to 2023,the index of low temperature day before flowering is de-termined by stepwise approximation method.According to the index of low temperature day the low-tem-perature processes are counted.Multiple low-temperature processes prior to the 1st batch flowering are fully arranged and combined,and the correlation coefficients between the beginning data of 1st flowering and the start date of the low-temperature process of each combination are calculated.The most significant combination of the low-temperature processes is identified as the effective low-temperature process.Then,by comparing the effective low-temperature process to the ineffective low-temperature process,the low-temperature process effectiveness index is determined.The results are that:(1)The index of low temper-ature day before Golden Osmanthus flowering in Taizhou is that the daily maximum temperature is<24.4℃.(2)The effective low-temperature process can be divided into two categories:First,the longest consecu-tive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is≥2 d;second,the longest consecu-tive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is 1 d,the daily maximum temperature of the day after the low-temperature process is≤27.3℃and the daily maximum temperature of the pre-vious day is<28.8℃.(3)The ineffective low-temperature process classification index is that the lon-gest consecutive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is 1 d,the daily maximum temperature of the day after the low-temperature process is≥27.5℃or the daily maximum temperature of the previous day is≥29.9℃.(4)The date of the 1st flowering of Golden Osmanthusis is 6-9 days after the start date of the 1st effective low-temperature process.The flowering start date of each batch of Golden Osmanthus is significantly positively correlated with the start date of effective low-temperature process.
关键词
金桂/开花期预报/逐步趋近法/日最高气温低温日指标/低温过程有效性指标
Key words
Golden Osmanthus/flowering period forecast/stepwise approximation method/index of low temperature day for daily maximum temperature/low-temperature process effectiveness index
维普
万方数据