Study on the Transmission Characteristics and Prediction Model of Wheat Stripe Rust in Luohe
Based on the stripe rust data,conventional meteorological observations and GDAS reanal-ysis data in Luohe City,Henan Province,from 2010 to 2020,the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model and cluster analysis method are used to investigate the characteristics of wheat stripe rust airborne spore propagation in the spring of 2015-2020.The results showed that there are four typical spore air mass transport paths in central Henan in spring,among which the westward path is the main path affecting Luohe,but the spore transport is not strong.The other three paths of northwest,northwest to northeast,and eastward deviation have the majority of trajectory number and the spores being transported,and all of them are stronger than the westward deviation path in terms of their ability to transport spores,so the functions they play are important.The wheat stripe rust is directly related to meteorological conditions.Through Spearman correlation analysis,key meteorological factors are screened,and the hierarchical probability prediction model for the degree of wheat stripe rust occurrence is established by using ordered Logistic multiple regression.In the operational trial of the prediction model in 2021-2022,the results of the annual occurrence prediction showed that the two-factor model formed by the frequency of February southerly winds and the mean wind speed in mid-March predicted the annual occurrence of wheat stripe rust had a consistent accuracy of 100%,superior to the accuracy of the one-factor model formed by the mean air temperature in January.For the occurrence prediction of wheat stripe rust in April,all the three models had an accuracy of 50%at a consistent level and an accuracy of 100%with one-level difference.
wheat stripe rustbackward trajectoryspearman correlationordered Logistic regres-sionprediction model
万方数据
维普
