为探究气象因素与人类活动对近 20 年海南岛总初级生产力(Gross Primary Production,GPP)变化的相对贡献,首先利用Theil-Sen及Mann-Kendall方法获取海南岛GPP整体时空分布特征,在此基础上,分别以土地利用及覆被变化(Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC)指示人类活动,以气温(Air Temperature,Ta)、饱和水汽压差(Vapor Pressure Deficit,VPD)以及光合有效辐射(Photosynthetically Active Radiation,PAR)作为气象要素指标,通过空间统计与机器学习手段,构建海南岛GPP变化格局归因模型,量化驱动因素的相对贡献.结果表明:研究期间内,时间上,海南岛GPP呈现 0.44 Tg·a-1 的显著增加趋势(P=0.024);空间上,海南岛 87.8%面积的GPP表现增加趋势,海口及三亚周边等小部分区域(约 9%)则表现为下降;海南岛土地利用共计转移 15 528.40 km2,主要发生于林地地区,林地净增加 642.88 km2,草地地区转移面积为 4 759.28 km2,耕地地区转移的面积为 4 051.23 km2;相较于人类活动,研究期年际间气象条件的差异是海南岛GPP变化的主导因素,但特殊年份中LUCC对海南省市县的影响则有所凸显.
Analysis of varying patterns and driving factors of GPP in Hainan Island during the past 20 years
In order to explore the relative contribution of meteorological factors and human activities to the variation of gross primary production(GPP)in Hainan Island during the past 20 years,the Theil-Sen and Mann-Kendall methods were first used to obtain spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of GPP.Based on this,land Use and cover change(LUCC)was used as an indicator of human activities,air temperature(Ta),vapor pressure deficit(VPD)and photosynthetically active radiation(RAR)were used as meteorological factors.By using spatial statistics and machine learning techniques,a model attributing the variations in Hainan Island's GPP was constructed to quantify the relative contribution of driving factors.The results showed that during the study period,GPP showed a significant increasing trend,with a rate of change of 0.44 Tg·a-1(P=0.024)in time.Spatially,87.8%of the island's area showed a significant increasing trend,while a small portion region around Haikou and Sanya and other part of Hainan Island showed a decline(about 9%).Land use and cover change in Hainan Island had a total transfer of 15 528.40 km2,mainly occurring in forested areas,with a net increase of 642.88 km2 in forests,a transfer area of 4 759.28 km2 in grasslands and 4 051.23 km2 in croplands.Compared to human activities,the interannual of meteorological factors during the study period were the dominant factor influencing the variation in Hainan Island's GPP.However,the impact of LUCC on cities and counties were more prominent in certain years.
gross primary productionland use and cover changemeteorological factorsHainan Islandattribution analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
