Quantitative Evaluation of the "Prosperity Trickle-down" Effect in Large Developing Countries:A Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation Based on Provincial Panel Data in China
China,as a representative developing country,exhibits typical characteristics of a dual regional structure.Strengthening the"prosperity trickle-down"effect is crucial forpromoting common prosperity across dual regions.Utilizing provincial panel data and based on the nonlinear least squares method incorporating a spatial geographic weight matrix,this study quantitatively evaluates the interprovincial"prosperity trickle-down"effect and examines the law of geographic distance decay.The study finds significant interprovincial"prosperity trickle-down"effect in China.Each unit increase in the per capita real GDP of the wealthier provinces can drive an increase of 0.189 9 units in the per capita GDP of the less prosperous provinces.This result remains robust after robustness tests and counterfactual tests.The"prosperity trickle-down"effect conforms to the law of geographic distance decay,forming two types—smooth and jump-like—with differences in geographic thresholds.There is a positive externality effect of development among the wealthier provinces.The regional growth poles in the eastern and central regions of China exhibit the"prosperity trickle-down"effect,with the central region being stronger than the eastern region.
the"prosperity trickle-down"effectlarge developing countrieslaw of geographic distance decay
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