首页|自适应逐步混合截尾加速寿命试验下应力强度模型的可靠性分析

自适应逐步混合截尾加速寿命试验下应力强度模型的可靠性分析

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针对寿命试验中存在试验时间长且试验数据难以收集的问题,文章基于自适应逐步Ⅱ型混合截尾样本,研究步进应力部分加速寿命试验下应力强度模型的可靠性分析问题.首先,根据极大似然理论,获得应力强度模型可靠度的极大似然估计并给出了渐近置信区间.然后,利用Bootstrap方法构造了 2类Bootstrap置信区间.其次,分别运用Lindley近似方法和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法得到应力强度模型可靠度的贝叶斯估计,并给出其最大后验密度可信区间.最后,运用数值模拟,将极大似然方法、Lindley近似方法和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行对比研究;同时,比较了最大后验密度可信区间、Bootstrap置信区间和渐近置信区间的优良性.模拟结果表明:(1)应力强度模型可靠度的贝叶斯估计优于极大似然估计;(2)基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法的贝叶斯估计优于基于Lindley近似方法的贝叶斯估计;(3)随着样本量的增加,贝叶斯估计和极大似然估计的均方误差和平均绝对偏差均呈减小趋势;(4)最大后验密度可信区间优于渐近置信区间和Bootstrap置信区间.由上述结论可知,文章的方法对于估计加速寿命试验下应力强度模型的可靠度是切实可行的,其中,马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法优于极大似然方法和Lind-ley近似方法,基于贝叶斯估计得到的最大后验密度可信区间优于Bootstrap方法构造的置信区间和基于极大似然估计得到的渐近置信区间.
Reliability Analysis of Stress-Strength Model under Adaptive Progressive Hybrid Censoring Accelerated Life Test
The reliability analysis of the stress-strength model under the step-stress partial accelerated life test based on the adaptive progressive type-Ⅱ hybrid censored samples is studied,addressing the issue of long life test times and test data is difficult to collect.Firstly,the maximum likelihood estimation of the reliability of the stress-strength model is obtained according to the maximum likelihood theory,and the asymptotic confidence interval is provided.Then,two kinds of Bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed using the Bootstrap method.Secondly,Bayesian estimation of the reliability of the stress-strength model is obtained by the Lindley approximation method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method,and the highest posterior density credible interval is derived.Finally,a comparative study is conducted using numerical simulations on the maximum likelihood method,the Lindley ap-proximation method,and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method,while also comparing the excellence of the highest posterior density credible interval,Bootstrap confidence interval,and asymptotic confidence interval.The simula-tion results show that Bayesian estimation outperforms maximum likelihood estimation for the reliability of the stress-strength model,and Bayesian estimation based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is superior to that based on the Lindley approximation method.As the sample size increases,the mean square error and mean absolute deviation of both Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation decrease.The highest posterior density credible interval is found to perform better than both the asymptotic confidence interval and the Bootstrap confidence inter-val.From these conclusions,it can be inferred that the proposed method is practical for estimating the reliability of the stress-strength model under accelerated life testing.Furthermore,the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method out-performs both the maximum likelihood method and the Lindley approximation method.Additionally,the highest pos-terior density credible interval derived from Bayesian estimation is superior to both the Bootstrap and asymptotic confidence intervals constructed using maximum likelihood estimation.

adaptive progressive type-Ⅱ hybrid censoringstress-strength modelstep-stress partial accelerated life testmaximum likelihood estimationBayesian estimation

蔡静、何剑、徐开丽、何飞、韩荣

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贵州民族大学数据科学与信息工程学院,贵阳 550025

自适应逐步Ⅱ型混合截尾 应力强度模型 步进应力部分加速寿命试验 极大似然估计 贝叶斯估计

2024

华南师范大学学报(自然科学版)
华南师范大学

华南师范大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.413
ISSN:1000-5463
年,卷(期):2024.56(5)