摘要
基于 2000-2022 年GDELT全球新闻数据构建中国—东盟金融合作网络,并运用地层约束聚类、社会网络分析和QAP 回归等方法分析网络的结构、演化及影响因素,发现:中国—东盟金融合作网络受亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机和逆全球化思潮抬头等宏观环境变动影响,金融合作程度由持续上升转向波动性下降,呈现"缓慢增长""积极融入"和"逐步调整"的阶段演化特征.中国—东盟金融合作网络存在内部不均衡、地理邻近优先和"金字塔"式程度级差的结构特征.整体网络结构日益紧密,小世界性特征愈加明显;局部网络结构趋向稳定,内部群体分化逐渐缩小;个体网络结构的各国重要性不断上升,中国、泰国、越南、马来西亚 4 国占据主导地位,发挥"桥梁"作用.中国—东盟金融合作网络受贸易往来程度、金融发展距离、经济邻近性、制度距离、市场化距离、语言邻近性、宗教邻近性、地理邻近性、信息化发展、交通发展和数字经济发展距离 11 个因素共同作用.但经济邻近性、金融发展距离和数字经济距离 3 个因素对中国—东盟金融合作网络仅存在阶段性影响.
Abstract
Based on the 2000-2022 GDELT mass media data,this paper constructed the financial cooperation network of China-ASEAN and analyzed its structure,evolution characteristics,and influencing factors.The results indicate that:1)The net-work has been influenced by macro-environmental changes such as the Asian financial crisis,the global financial crisis,and the rise of anti-globalization trends.It shows an evolution from a continuous rise to a fluctuating downward trend,reflecting"slow growth","active integration",and"gradual adjustment"stages.2)The China-ASEAN financial cooperation network exhibits in-ternal imbalance,geographical priority proximity,and has a pyramid hierarchical distribution.Overall,the China-ASEAN financial cooperation network has become increasingly close with a more obvious small-world character.At the local level,internal groups have narrowed gradually.At the individual level,the importance of each country has risen.Particularly,China,Thailand,Viet-nam,and Malaysia dominate the network and act as"bridges".3)Financial development distance,degree of trade,economic proximity,institutional distance,marketization distance,language proximity,religious proximity,geographical proximity,informa-tization,transportation development,and digital economy distance are important factors affecting China-ASEAN financial coopera-tion.However,economic proximity,financial development distance,and digital economy distance have stage effects on the China-ASEAN financial cooperation network.
万方数据