首页|生育支持与欠发达地区育龄女性的生育意愿——基于贵州省88个区县的生育意愿调查

生育支持与欠发达地区育龄女性的生育意愿——基于贵州省88个区县的生育意愿调查

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生育支持已经成为强化青年生育意愿和生育行为的重要举措,然而受限于研究数据,以往的研究很少对欠发达地区各类生育支持及其效果进行研究。为了研究欠发达地区各类生育支持对育龄女性生育意愿的作用,基于贵州省88个区县的生育意愿调查数据,从政府政策支持、社会托育支持和家庭代际支持三个维度研究了生育支持对欠发达地区育龄女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现:(1)当前贵州育龄女性的生育意愿已经下降到了较低水平,未来生育水平有进一步下降的风险。(2)家庭代际支持、社会托育支持和政府政策支持对育龄女性的总体生育意愿都具有显著的促进作用,但只有政府政策支持和家庭代际支持对三孩生育意愿具有显著的影响,社会托育支持对三孩生育意愿的影响不显著。(3)异质性分析则发现各类生育支持对35岁以上的育龄女性影响较大,是对35岁以下年轻群体影响的两倍左右。各类支持对不同学历育龄女性的影响也出现了分化,总体上呈现出低学历女性受到家庭支持与政府政策支持影响较大,而高学历女性受到托育服务影响较大的特征。(4)各类生育支持方式对育龄女性生育意愿的协同效应十分显著,当各类生育支持都较强时,对育龄女性生育意愿的影响较大。基于上述结论,一方面,生育支持体系与生育支持政策既要坚持普惠性,又要兼顾不同群体差异化需求;另一方面,需要进一步完善生育支持体系,充分发挥各类生育支持的协同效应,让育龄女性在生育决策时有更多生育支持方式的选择。
Fertility Support and the Fertility Intentions of Women of Childbearing Age in Underdeveloped Areas—Based on a Survey of Fertility Intentions Across 88 Districts and Counties in Guizhou Province
Fertility support has become an important measure to enhance the fertility intentions and behaviors of young people.However,due to limited research data,few studies have examined various types of fertility support and their effects in underdeveloped areas.To investigate the impact of various types of fertility support on the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age in underdeveloped areas,this study uses survey data on fertility intentions from 88 districts and counties in Guizhou Province.It examines the influence of government policy support,social childcare support,and family intergenerational support on the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age in these areas.The findings of the study are as follows.(1)The current fertility intentions of women of childbearing age in Guizhou have declined to a low level,with a risk of further decline in future fertility levels.(2)Family intergenerational support,social childcare support,and government policy support all significantly promote the overall fertility intentions of women of childbearing age.However,only government policy support and family intergenerational support have a significant impact on the intention to have three children,while the impact of social childcare support on the intention to have three children is not significant.(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that various types of fertility support have a greater impact on women over 35 years old,approximately twice the impact on younger women under 35.The impact of different supports also varies by educational attainment,with lower-educated women being more influenced by family support and government policy support,while higher-educated women are more influenced by childcare services.(4)The synergistic effect of various types of fertility support on the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age is very significant.When all types of fertility support are strong,they have a greater impact on the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age.Based on these conclusions,this paper suggests that,on one hand,the fertility support system and policies should be universally beneficial while also considering the differentiated needs of different groups;on the other hand,it is necessary to further improve the fertility support system,fully leverage the synergistic effects of various types of fertility support,and provide women of childbearing age with more choices of fertility support options when making fertility decisions.

Fertility Support SystemFertility IntentionsUnderdeveloped AreasRespondent-Driven Sampling Survey

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贵州省社会科学院博士后工作站,贵州 贵阳 550002

贵州财经大学 经济学院,贵州 贵阳 550025

生育支持体系 生育意愿 欠发达地区 被访者驱动抽样调查

2025

河南社会科学
河南省社会科学界联合会

河南社会科学

北大核心
影响因子:0.518
ISSN:1007-905X
年,卷(期):2025.33(1)