首页|基于血清学指标构建肝细胞癌与肝内胆管癌的鉴别诊断模型

基于血清学指标构建肝细胞癌与肝内胆管癌的鉴别诊断模型

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目的 借助常规血清学指标,构建肝细胞癌与肝内胆管癌的鉴别模型,并评估其准确性。方法 纳入2021-06-2023-06郑州大学第一附属医院收治的380例肝细胞癌或肝内胆管癌患者,回顾性分析相关临床资料。收集肝炎病毒病史、肝功能、肿瘤标志物、穿刺或术后病理等临床数据。使用Lasso回归与逐步回归法筛选出具有肝细胞癌与肝内胆管癌鉴别诊断意义的关键变量,利用logis-tic 回归构建模型、构建列线图并进行模型综合评价。结果 通过共线性诊断,筛除VIF>5的变量,并通过Lasso回归筛选出性别、肝炎病毒病史、甲胎蛋白、糖类抗原199、血清谷氨酰转肽酶、血清碱性磷酸酶、血清总胆红素7个关键变量。通过逐步回归法进一步缩小为性别、肝炎病毒病史、甲胎蛋白、糖类抗原199、血清碱性磷酸酶5个核心鉴别变量。所构建的Logistic回归模型的ROC曲线AUC值为0。986,灵敏度为0。942,特异度为0。958。校准图表明模型的预测概率与实际观测值拟合良好,且决策曲线显示模型具有优良的净效益。结论 本研究构建的基于常规血清学指标的鉴别模型,在鉴别诊断HCC与ICC方面表现突出,具有广阔的临床应用潜力。
Differential diagnosis model of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma based on serological indexes
Objective To develop a differential model between hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)using routine serological markers and to evaluate its accuracy.Methods To retrospectively analyze clinical data from 380 patients diag-nosed with either HCC or ICC in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from June 2021 to June 2023.Comprehensive clinical data were collected,including hepatitis virus history,liver function,tumor markers,and data from percutaneous or post-operative pathology.Key variables for differentiating HCC and ICC were identified by using lasso regression and stepwise regression.Based on this,we created a differen-tial diagnosis model,drew the nomogram and performed comprehensive model evaluation by RSTUDIO.Results The variables with VIF>5 were screened out by collinear diagnosis,and seven key variables including Gender,HV,AFP,CA19-9,GGT,ALP,and TBIL were screened by Lasso regression.And then determined five core discriminative variables(Gender,HV,AFP,CA19-9,and ALP)by Stepwise regression.The ROC curve for the constructed logistic regression model had an AUC value of 0.986,with a sensitivity of 0.942 and specificity of 0.958.The calibration curve shows that the prediction probability of the model fits well with the actual observation,and the decision curve a-nalysis shows that the model has excellent clinical benefit.The differential model based on routine serological indexes constructed in this study is excellent in the differential diagnosis of HCC and ICC,and has broad clinical application potential.Conclusion Our differential model based on routine serological markers exhibited outstanding performance in distinguishing between HCC and ICC and had significant clinical ap-plicability potential.

Hepatocellular carcinomaIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinomaNomogramDiagnostic model

杨超豪、马鹏飞、梁志伟、王红飞、张娣、赵龙栓

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郑州大学第一附属医院肝胆胰外科 郑州 450001

肝细胞癌 肝内胆管癌 列线图 诊断模型

2024

河南外科学杂志
郑州大学

河南外科学杂志

影响因子:0.709
ISSN:1007-8991
年,卷(期):2024.30(4)
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