Analysis on incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of inguinal hernia,femoral hernia and abdominal hernia in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyze the incidence trend of inguinal hernia(IH),femoral hernia(FH),and abdominal hernia(AH)in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 and explore the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of IH,FH and AH.Methods The incidence data of IH,FH and AH in Chinese residents were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of IH,FH and AH incidence from 1990 to 2019.An age-period-cohort model analysis was used to examine the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of them.Results The overall incidence of IH,FH and AH in Chinese residents exhibited an upward trend with fluctuations from 1990 to 2019,with an averaging annual percentage change(AAPC)of 0.91％(95％CI:0.83％-1.00％).The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the risk of IH,FH and AH decreased,then increased,and finally declined with increasing age.The relative risk(RR)first decreased from 5.32(95％CI:4.87-5.81)in the age group less than 5 years to 0.29(95％CI:0.25-0.34)in the age group of 20-＜25years old,then increased to 2.75(95％CI:2.58-2.93)in the age group of 65-＜70 years old,and finally decreased to 0.53(95％CI:0.46-0.60)in the age group greater than or equal to 95 years.The period effect gradually increased with the passage of time,and the RR value increased from 0.86(95％CI:0.82-0.90)to 1.16(95％CI:1.11-1.21).The overall risk decreased with the progress of birth cohort,and the RR value decreased from 1.27(95％CI:0.97-1.69)to 0.68(95％CI:0.60-0.77).Conclusions The incidence of IH,FH and AH among Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.Age,period,and cohort effects exists on the incidence of IH,FH and AH in China.More effective prevention and control measures are needed to reduce the incidence of IH,FH and AH.
Inguinal herniaFemoral herniaAbdominal herniaIncidenceChanging trendAge-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
