Status of injury death and trend prediction in Xiamen city of Fujian province from 2016 to 2022
Objective To analyze the injury death status among residents in Xiamen city,2016-2022,and predict the situation in the next three years so as to provide scientific evidences for the prevention and control of injury.Methods The all-cause mortality surveillance data and demographic data of residents in Xiamen city from 2016 to 2022 were collected;the injury mortality rate,standardized mortality rate and annual percentage change(APC)were calculated;and the GM(1,1)gray model was established for prediction.Results From 2016 to 2022,the death toll from injuries among residents in Xiamen was 5 928,with a mortality rate of 33.85/105 and the standardized mortality rate of 30.72/105.The mortality rate of injury reduced by 3.03％per year on average(APC=-3.03％,P＜0.05).The standardized mortality rate of injury in males(35.77/105)were higher than those in females(25.41/105)(P＜0.05).The mortality rate of injury in the elderly aged 65 years or older was highest,which was 158.22/105,accounting for 62.49％.The top three causes of injury death were fall,road traffic injurie,and suicide,with crude mortality rates of 14.42/105,5.02/105,and 4.66/105,respectively.The mortality rate of road traffic injury in males and the mortality rate of suicide in females decreased by 10.47％and 9.79％,respectively(both P＜0.05).The model of GM(1,1)predicted that the overall injury mortality rate,traffic accident and suicide mortality rates in Xiamen residents from 2023 to 2025 will decrease year by year,while the fall mortality rate will increase year by year.Conclusions From 2016 to 2022,the injury mortality rate in Xiamen residents showed a downward trend,but the rate was still high.The prevention of falls in the elderly aged 65 years or older should be focused on.
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万方数据
