Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo,Henan(2014 to 2023)
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo,Henan,and to predict the short-term incidences,so as to provide evidence for formulating targeted interventions for the prevention and control.Methods Epidemiological data on hepatitis C cases in Jiaozuo City were extracted from the national notifiable disease reporting system spanning from 2014 to 2023.Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied,and the SPSS 27.0 software was utilized to project the incidence trend for hepatitis C from 2024 to 2025.Results A total of 6 827 hepatitis C cases and 10 deaths were reported,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 19.25/100 000.A significant decreasing trend in the reported incidence rate was observed(x2trend=662.98,P＜0.001).Cases were distributed evenly across the year without distinct clustering.The highest incidence rates were noted in Zhongzhan District(37.06/100 000),Macun District(36.54/100 000),and Jiefang District(27.36/100 000).The average annual reported incidence was higher in females(21.95/100 000)compared to males(16.66/100 000)(x2-129.01,P＜0.001).The age groups with the highest incidence rates were 80-＜85 years for males(71.28/100 000)and 65-＜70 years for females(62.27/100 000).The majority of cases(4 253,62.30％)were among farmers,and the most cases(4 509,66.05％)were clinically diagnosed.Employing Winster's multiplicative model,the study projected 259 and 175 cases of hepatitis C for 2024 and 2025,respectively.Conclusions The reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo City is on the downward trajectory.It is recommended that existing prevention and control measures be reinforced,with an emphasis on strengthening comprehensive interventions such as health education,expanded screening for early detection,standardized treatment protocols,and improved reporting quality to further curtail the incidence of hepatitis C.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
