Prediction of changing trends of health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2022 to 2030_Based on ARIMA model
Objective To analyze the changing trends and structure of the total amount of health financing(source method)in Hunan from 2010 to 2021,and to predict and analyze the health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2022 to 2030 using the ARIMA model,aiming to provide scientific and reasonable data basis for macropolicy formulation of healthcare development in Hunan Province and even the whole nation.Methods The ARIMA model was applied to training and fitting the total amount of health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2010 to 2021,and thus predicting their trends for the next nine years.Results By 2030,the health financing in Hunan will have reached 494.365 billion yuan,of which the government health financing will have reached 133.437 billion yuan,accounting for 26.99%,the social health financing 235.021 billion yuan,accounting for 47.54%,and the individual cash health financing 127.876 billion yuan,accounting for 25.87%.In the financing structure,there were one"lower"and two"highers",that is,the proportion of government health financing(28.71%)was lower than that in the national average,and the proportions of social health financing(45.80%)and individual cash financing(25.49%)were higher than those in the national average.Conclusion The government health financing should be increased continuously,the increase of which should exceed that of the social health financing.Environment for social financing should be further optimized to ensure the social health financing.Effective measures should be taken to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses and reduce the economic burden of the residents in healthcare.Through these measures,the structure of health financing can be further optimized,and the medical and health system reform can be promoted to ensure the high-quality development of healthcare.
health financingchanging trendsfinancing structurepredictionARIMA model
万方数据
