首页|气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析

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气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的定量研究是当前研究的热点,赣江作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,径流变化对鄱阳湖湿地水生态系统具有重要的影响.利用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了赣江流域径流1955-2010年间演变趋势,再分别应用统计方法和IHACRES集总式模型分析气候要素和人类活动对径流的影响.研究表明IHACRES能够较好地模拟赣江流域径流,适用于中亚热带湿润季风气候区.Mann-Kendall突变检验表明赣江流域径流在1979年发生突变,可划分为1955-1979年和1980-2010年两个时段.降水是影响赣江流域径流年际变化的主要因素,而土地利用等人类活动的影响并不明显.水库建设显著影响赣江径流的季节分配,1980-2010年间人类活动影响更加显著,其中45％的年份秋季径流增加50％以上,26％的年份秋季径流增加超过100％,其中1989年的秋季径流增加幅度达到320％.
Quantitative estimation of runoff changes in Ganjiang River, Lake Poyang Basin under climate change and anthropogenic impacts
How to identify the quantitative effect of climate change and human activities on runoff is a hot topic.As the largest river of Poyang Basin,the hydrological regime changes of Ganjiang River had an effect on water ecosystem health of Lake Poyang Basin.In this paper,the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the tendency of runoff changes for Ganjiang River in 1955-2010.The impact of climate factors and human activities on runoff was analyzed by statistical methods and IHACRES model.The IHACRES model simulated the streamflow well in Ganjiang River and suitable for subtropical humid monsoon climate zone.The abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1979 and the watershed runoff was divided into two stages,i.e.1955-1979 and 1980-2010.Precipitation is the main factor influencing runoff of the Ganjiang River Basin,while the effect of land cover change on runoff due to human activities is not obvious.The influence of reservoir construction on the seasonal distribution of runoff was significant,with decreases in summer and increases in autumn,especially in 1980-2010.The autumn runoff of about 45％ of years in 1980-2010 increased more than 50％ compared with that in 1955-1979.In addition,26％ of years showed autumn runoff increase exceeding 100％,with a maximum 320％ of autumn runoff increase occurred in 1989.

RunoffMann-Kendall testIHACRESGanjiang RiverLake Poyang Basinclimate changehuman activity

刘贵花、齐述华、朱婧碹、熊梦雅、王点

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江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌330022

江西师范大学地理与环境学院,南昌330022

径流 Mann-Kendall检验 IHACRES 赣江 鄱阳湖流域 气候变化 人类活动

鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心项目江西省博士后科研项目

ZK2014003JXS-EW-002014KY13

2016

10.18307/2016.0326

湖泊科学
中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 中国海洋湖沼学会

湖泊科学

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.439
ISSN：1003-5427
年,卷(期)：2016.28(3)
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