首页|福利国家视角下的中国公民生育意愿——基于CFPS2018的定量分析

福利国家视角下的中国公民生育意愿——基于CFPS2018的定量分析

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生育关乎人口结构和社会经济发展,而生育意愿是生育行为的基础.在目前中国偏低的生育率背景下,关注并解释公民的生育意愿具有理论必要性和现实紧迫性.既有研究多从社会视角强调个人或家庭基本特征对公民生育意愿的影响,但较少用福利国家这个塑造公民利益和行为的因素去解释生育意愿.从理论上看,福利国家不同类型的福利供给可能对公民生育意愿产生不同影响.具体地,就养老、医疗这两类基础国家福利而言:养老福利供给可能使国家养老替代养儿防老,从而抑制公民生育意愿;而医疗福利供给既可能与养老福利供给发挥的作用类似,也可能在短期内使生育投入获得更多的家庭预算从而释放公民生育意愿.对此,利用CF-PS2018 调查数据进行检验后发现:不论是养老福利还是医疗福利,都会对中国公民的生育意愿产生抑制作用.这不仅从理论上为生育意愿研究提供了一个来自国家视角的解释变量,还启示政策制定者应审慎考虑必要的国家福利供给与健康的劳动力结构之间的平衡问题.
The Fertility Intention of Chinese Citizens from Perspective of Welfare States:A Quantitative Analysis Based on CFPS 2018
Fertility intention is the foundation of fertility behavior,which affects population structure and socio-economic development.Given the lower fertility rate in China today,it is necessary to explore and explain the fertility intentions of citizens.Previous studies have mostly emphasized the impact of individual or family factors on their fertility intentions from a social perspective,but have rarely used the welfare state as a factor shaping citizens'interests and behavior to explain fertility intentions.Theoretically,different types of welfare supply in welfare states may have different impacts on citizens'fertility intentions.For example,pension insurance may have negative effect on citizens'fertility intentions because raising children preparing for one's old age can be replaced by national elderly care.And medical insurance may play the same role as pension insurance or have positive effect on citizens'fertility by releasing more family budget to parenting.Based on the CFPS data in 2018,it was found that both pension insurance and medical insurance can reduce citizens'fertility inten-tions.This not only offers an explanatory variable from national perspective for the research on fertility intentions,but also inspires policy makers to carefully consider the balance between the welfare supply and the structure of labor force.

fertility intentionwelfare statepension insurancemedical insurance

赵静、钟本章

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中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院/中国公共管理研究中心(广东 广州 510006)

华侨大学政治与公共管理学院(福建 泉州 362021)

生育意愿 福利国家 养老保险 医疗保险

2024

华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
华侨大学

华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:1.024
ISSN:1006-1398
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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