Regional Welfare Level and Residents'Fertility Intention Based on HLM Model
The continues decline in fertility rate poses severe challenges to China's economic and social development.Based on the data of CFPS database in 2020 and the theory of welfare diversification,a hierarchical linear model(HLM)was constructed to measure the impact of regional welfare level on childbearing intention in 25 provinces of China.The re-sults show that:at the macro-level:fertility security index has no significant positive impact on residents'fertility inten-tion,economic developmental index has significant negative impact,public service index has significant negative impact.At the macro and micro interaction:improving the level of regional welfare can significantly improve the negative impact of marriage on fertility intentions and significantly enhance the rural residents'fertility intentions.The heterogeneity analysis of the model:the high-educated group is more affected by regional welfare levels than the low-educated group;Compared to men,the fertility security index can significantly increase women's fertility intention;Improving regional fertility guaran-tee index can significantly enhance the fertility intention of the non-bearing residents,and the fertility policy guarantee in-dex can significantly increase the fertility intention in the eastern region,while the economic development indicators signifi-cantly enhance the fertility intention in the western region.Through the simulation of the model,this paper discusses the in-ternal mechanism by which regional welfare levels affect the residents'childbearing intention,thus laying a foundation for our state to optimize the fertility policy and improve the welfare supply.
fertility intentionregional welfarehierarchical linear model
万方数据
