Study on Carbon Emission Forecast and Emission Reduction Strategies in Yangtze River Delta Region
The Yangtze River Delta region is an economically developed area in China,and its energy consumption and derived carbon emissions are among the highest in the country.The dual-carbon goal constraint makes it urgent to accu-rately predict and effectively control the total carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region.Based on literature data and practical research,this study adopts the grey prediction model and the triple exponential smoothing prediction model to construct a comprehensive combined prediction model.Using regional energy consumption statistics from 2015 to 2021,the study predicts and analyzes the carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region from 2023 to 2026.The ac-tual operation of the model shows that the combined model can overcome the shortcomings of a single model,with arela-tive error of 0.33%,demonstrating a good fitting effect.Based on the prediction results,a data-realfusion analysis is performed,and targeted emission control and reduction strategies are proposed from three different perspectives:industri-al production,residents'lives,and collaborative governance.The combined forecasting model plays a positive role in pro-moting accurate measurement of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and lays a foundation for the effective operation of carbon emission reduction technologies.
the Yangtze River Delta Regioncarbon emission forecastcombined forecasting modelemission reduc-tion pathway
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
