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中国区域产业结构变化测度及变化模式分析

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利用就业数据,考察中国地区产业结构差异性;借鉴古典σ收敛测算方法,测算中国2003-2020年产业结构变化趋势,并根据测度结果将产业结构变化区分为一般结构趋同、一般结构趋异、结构稳定,以及结构稳定与趋同趋异组合等4类共7种模式.研究发现:中国产业结构的变化存在以2010、2011年的分界点,分界点前后3次产业结构变化趋势存在明显差异,且与产业发展情况密切相关;随着产业的不断发展,产业结构变化趋势会沿着"一般结构趋异一产业结构稳定—一般结构趋同"模式转换.
Measurement of Regional Industrial Structure Changes in China and Analysis of Change Patterns
This paper examines the regional industrial structure variability in China using employment data.Based on the classical σ convergence measure,the trend of industrial structure change in China between 2003 and 2020 is measured,and the industrial structure change is distinguished into four patterns:general structural convergence,general structural convergence,structural stability,and a combination of structur-al stability and convergence and divergence,which are divided into seven patterns in total.This paper finds that the change of China's industrial structure has a cut-off point in 2010 and 2011,and there are obvious differences in the change trends of the three industrial structures before and after the cut-off point,which are closely related to the industrial development.With the continuous development of industry,the trend of industrial structure change will shift along the pattern of"general structure divergence-industrial struc-ture stability-general structure convergence.

general structural convergencegeneral structural convergenceσ-convergence

张燕华、李艳平

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湖北工业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉 430068

湖北循环经济发展研究中心,湖北武汉 430068

一般结构趋同 一般结构趋异 σ收敛

2024

湖北工业大学学报
湖北工业大学

湖北工业大学学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.258
ISSN:1003-4684
年,卷(期):2024.39(3)
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