摘要
将人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、能源结构、产业结构、技术水平6个因素引入STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归分析了各因素对河南省碳排放的影响.同时运用情景分析法,预测不同发展情景下的碳排放趋势.结果表明:产业结构对碳排放的影响最大,然后依次是人口规模、城镇化率、人均GDP、技术水平和能源结构;控制人口规模、优化产业结构和调整能源结构,可以有效促进河南省碳减排的实现.本研究可以在一定程度上为河南省如期实现"2030碳达峰"目标提供可行的建议.
Abstract
This paper introduces six factors into STIRPAT model,including population,urbanization rate,GDP per capita,energy structure,industrial structure and technological level,and analyzes the impact of each factor on carbon emissions in Henan Province through ridge regression.At the same time,the scenar-io analysis method is used to predict the carbon emission trend under different development scenarios.The results show that industrial structure has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,followed by population size,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,technology level and energy structure.Controlling population size,optimizing industrial structure and adjusting energy structure can effectively promote the realization of carbon emission reduction in Henan Province.This study can,to a certain extent,provide feasible sug-gestions for Henan Provinceto achieve the goal of"2030 carbon peak"as scheduled.
维普
万方数据