首页|房地产企业资本结构对股价波动的传递效应分析——基于结构化GARCH模型

房地产企业资本结构对股价波动的传递效应分析——基于结构化GARCH模型

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中国房地产企业资本结构长期处于高负债、高杠杆状态。在二十余年的房地产高速发展过程中,高杠杆风险长期被忽视,甚至被认为是房地产企业发展的固有模式。在结构化 GARCH 模型中引入资本结构因素,检验房地产企业资本结构对股价波动的传递与溢出效应。研究发现:中国房地产市场具有结构化特征,杠杆乘数与股价波动具有同步性;过高的负债水平并不会提升房地产企业的规模效应,反而会抑制股票收益率的增长。
An Analysis of Transmission Effect of Capital Structure on Stock Price Fluctuation of Real Estate Enterprises:Based on the Structured GARCH Model
The capital structure of China's real estate enterprises has been in a state of high debt and high leverage for a long time.In the process of rapid development of real estate for more than 20 years,the high leverage risk has been ignored,and it is even considered as the inherent model of the development of real estate enterprises.The capital structure factor is introduced into the structured GARCH model to test the transmission effect of the capital structure of real estate enterprises on stock price fluctuation.The re-sults show that China's real estate market has structural characteristics,and the leverage multiplier is syn-chronized with the stock price fluctuation.Excessive debt level will not improve the scale effect of real es-tate enterprises,but will inhibit the growth of stock returns.

real estate enterprisescapital structurestock price fluctuationstructured GARCH model

王虹、唐媛媛

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四川大学 商学院,四川 成都 610065

房地产企业 资本结构 股价波动 结构化GARCH模型

国家社会科学基金成都市软科学研究计划四川大学"从0到1"创新研究项目

17BJY1762021-RK00-00265-ZF2022CX25

2024

湖南大学学报(社会科学版)
湖南大学

湖南大学学报(社会科学版)

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.554
ISSN:1008-1763
年,卷(期):2024.38(2)
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