"一带一路"国家能源投资的风险识别与传导——基于复杂网络方法
Energy Investment Risk Identification and Transmission in the Belt and Road Initiative:Based on Complex Network Theory
刘倩 1王莹莹2
作者信息
- 1. 北京师范大学 一带一路学院,北京 100875
- 2. 中国人民大学 应用经济学院,北京 100872;中国人民大学 交叉科学研究院,北京 100872
- 折叠
摘要
基于复杂网络理论,构建了能源投资风险指标体系,建立了风险识别模型,并通过 103 个共建"一带一路"国家 2010-2019 年数据实证分析了中国能源行业对外直接投资风险演变特征、趋势及时空传导路径.研究结果表明:腐败控制、政府效率、监管质量、法律规则以及社会稳定等指标是中国能源产业海外投资的关键风险点;十年间中国能源对外直接投资风险传导性不断增强,从单一国家的投资风险看,印度尼西亚、土耳其、巴西内部的投资风险环境更为复杂;基于最小生成树(MST)的风险传导路径长度表明,投资风险在欧洲中亚、中东北非以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的传导路径变短,联系日益紧密,风险加速积聚.
Abstract
This paper constructs an energy investment risk index system and risk identification model based on Complex Network Theory and empirically analyzes the risk evolution characteristics,trends and spatio-temporal transmission path of the overseas investment in China's energy industry through the data of 103 countries from 2010 to 2019.Key findings include:(1)Indicators such as control of corruption,government effectiveness,regulatory quality,rule of law,political stability and absence of violence/terror-ism are the key risk points of China's energy industry overseas investments;(2)The transmissibility of China's energy OFDI continues to increase over the past ten years.Examining individual country invest-ment risks reveals Indonesia,Turkey and Brazil showcase internally complex investment risk environ-ments.(3)Based on the minimum spanning tree,investment risks in Europe and Central Asia,Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa have shorter transmission paths,increasingly close links and accelerated risk accumulation.
关键词
一带一路/复杂网络/能源投资/风险识别/风险传导Key words
Belt and Road Initiative/complex network/energy investment/risk identification/risk transmission引用本文复制引用
基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(23YJCZH134)
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD24CYJ02)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据