首页|基于灰色关联度分析的衡阳市科技创新与油茶产业发展研究

基于灰色关联度分析的衡阳市科技创新与油茶产业发展研究

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以衡阳市为研究背景,在科技创新与油茶产业发展耦合协调分析的基础上,进一步采用灰色关联模型测算耦合协调度D值影响因素的关联程度,对优化油茶产业结构配置具有重要意义.本研究以灰色系统理论为基础,将耦合协调度D值作为母序列,将两个系统耦合发展一、二级指标D值作为特征序列的影响因素,定量分析系统协调发展水平与各因素间的灰色关联度和优劣次序.研究结果表明:2012-2021年,一、二级影响因素指标灰色关联度普遍处于0.6以上,与系统耦合有较强的关联程度.7个一级影响因素整体灰色关联度大于0.5,平均灰色关联度达0.735;根据灰色关联度,可将一级影响因素划分为3个等级,其中产业文化、产业规模是驱动系统耦合协调发展的主要影响因素,产业效益和产业发展是制约因素.25个二级影响因素平均灰色关联度为0.779;根据灰色关联度,可将二级影响因素划分为2个等级,其中茶油总产量和R&D活动经费支出灰色关联度最高,是油茶产业发展的最主要驱动影响因素;油茶企业注册资本年均增速、新产品销售收入、油茶企业数量年均增速和茶油总产值灰色关联度最弱、影响力最小,是制约两系统耦合协调发展的主要因素.
Research on science and technology innovation and industry development of Camellia oleifera in Hengyang City based on grey correlation analysis
In this article,taking Hengyang City as the research background,a grey correlation model was furtherly adopted to calculate the correlation of the influence factors of the coupling coordination degree D value based on the analysis of the coupling and coordination between science and technology innovation and the development of the Camellia oleifera industry,which was of great significance for optimizing the structural configuration of the Camellia oleifera industry.Based on grey system theory,we used the coupling coordination degree D value as the parent sequence and took D value of the primary and secondary indicators of two systems coupling development as the influence factor of the feature sequence,quantitatively analyzed the grey correlation between the coordination development level and various factors and order of merit.The research results indicated that the grey correlation value of the primary and secondary influence factor indicators were all larger than 0.6 from 2012 to 2021 with a strong correlation with system coupling.The grey correlation value of 7 primary influence factors were larger than 0.5,and the average grey correlation value was 0.735.According to the grey correlation value,the primary influence factors could be divided into 3 levels,among which the main influencing factors for driving the coordinated development were industry culture and industry scale,and the factors of constrain were industry efficiency and industry development.The average grey correlation value of 25 secondary influence factors was 0.779.According to the grey correlation value,the secondary influence factors could be divided into two levels,among which the grey correlation value of the total yield of Camellia oleifera fruit and R&D activity expense were the largest as the main driving factors for the development of the Camellia oleifera industry,and the average annual growth rate of registered capital,sales revenue of new products,the average annual growth rate of the Camellia oleifera enterprises number and the total output value were the weakest factors with the least influence which were the main factors of constraint in the coupling coordination development of the two systems.

Hengyang Cityscience and technology innovationCamellia oleifera industry developmentgrey correlation

肖芳曦、孟亚萍、朱捷、李艳、李维

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衡阳市农业科学院,湖南衡阳 421101

湖南林博农业有限公司,湖南耒阳 421812

衡阳市 科技创新 油茶产业发展 灰色关联度

湖南省农业科技创新资金衡阳市科技计划

2021CX52202323026725

2024

湖南林业科技
湖南省林学会,湖南省林业科学院,湖南省林业厅科技信息中心

湖南林业科技

影响因子:0.572
ISSN:1003-5710
年,卷(期):2024.51(4)