基于不确定AHP和云模型的研考考务风险综合评价方法
Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method for Graduate Examination Based on Uncertain AHP and Cloud Model
王凯 1吉丽2
作者信息
- 1. 甘肃省教育考试院研究生招生处,甘肃 兰州 730010
- 2. 江苏省教育考试院高校招生处,江苏 南京 210024
- 折叠
摘要
鉴于研究考务风险因素的复杂性,在专家评分的基础上,将不确定性层次分析法与云模型理论相结合,也为了准确评估全国硕士研究生招生考试的考务风险,构建新型混合模型,用于描述研考考务风险的不确定性与模糊性.在分析研考考务风险来源的基础上,构建了风险指标体系;利用不确定性层次分析方法来计算指标-权重;基于云模型理论和最大相似度原则下完成风险等级的识别.通过实证分析验证本方法的合理性,为全面评估研考考务风险提供了一种新的思路.
Abstract
To accurately assess the examination risk of the National Master's Degree Admission Examination,this thesis proposes a novel hybrid model that combines the uncertainty hierarchical analysis method with cloud model theory,based on expert scoring.First,a system of examination service risk indicators was constructed.Subsequently,we em-ployed uncertainty hierarchy analysis to calculate the weight assignments for these indicators.Finally,we established the risk threshold using the principles of cloud model theory and maximization of similarity.By analyzing examples,we veri-fied the reasonableness of the proposed method.This approach provides a new perspective for comprehensively assessing and studying examination service risk.
关键词
考务风险评估/不确定性层次分析/云模型理论/风险等级确定Key words
examination service risk assessment/uncertainty hierarchy analysis/cloud modeling theory/risk level determination引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据