基于概率方法的主动补偿栈桥工作能力分析
Analysis of the working capability of active compensation gangways based on probabilistic methods
龚凡明 1苏焕婷 2徐林 1毛寿祺 1牛雅倩1
作者信息
- 1. 上海振华重工(集团)股份有限公司 设计研究总院,上海 200175
- 2. 上海海事大学 物流工程学院,上海 201306
- 折叠
摘要
主动补偿栈桥作为海上风电运维的核心装备,主要用于减小复杂恶劣的海况对运维作业过程的干扰,保障作业人员的平稳通行和生命安全.工作能力分析是主动补偿栈桥设计阶段的重要工作,其主要目的是研究栈桥安装在运维船舶后在目标风场的作业能力.通过建立栈桥补偿运动的运动学方程,输入给定的海况参数,时域仿真主动补偿运动响应.基于目标风场的水文数据,拟合海况参数的概率分布,并考虑由海浪谱生成时域波浪的随机因素,以概率方法确定了栈桥的不可达率作为栈桥工作能力的评价指标.为计算不可达率,提出了一种基于子集模拟的不可达率计算方法,期望使用较少的样本,快速计算不可达率.通过多个案例分析,与蒙特卡洛模拟方法对比,验证了文中计算方法的准确性和快速性.同时,通过对比分析,确定了采用简化的工程方法计算栈桥工作能力时所需的极值估计参数的建议值,为3.7倍的标准差.
Abstract
Active compensation gangways,as the core equipment for offshore wind power operation and maintenance(O&M),are primarily utilized to minimize the interference from complex and severe sea conditions on O&M processes,ensuring the smooth passage and safety of personnel.The analysis of working capability is a critical task during the design phase of active compensation gangways,aimed at investigating the capability of the gangways mounted on O&M vessels in the targeted wind field.By establishing the kinematic equations of the gangway's compensation movement,with given sea condition parameters as input,the time-domain simulation of active compensation motion response is conducted.Based on hydrographic data of the target wind field,the probability distribution of sea condition parameters is fitted,and considering the randomness of wave generation from wave spectra,the inaccessibility rate of the gangway is determined by probabilistic methods as an evaluation index for its working capability.For calculating the inaccessibility rate,a subset simulation-based method is proposed,expecting to compute the inaccessibility rate rapidly with fewer samples.Through multiple case analyses and comparisons with the Monte Carlo simulation method,the accuracy and speed of the proposed calculation method are validated.Moreover,by comparative analysis,the recommended values for the extreme value estimation parameters required for calculating the working capability of the gangway using simplified engineering methods are determined to be 3.7 times the standard deviation.
关键词
主动补偿/栈桥/工作能力/不可达率/子集模拟Key words
active compensation/gangway/working capability/inaccessibility rate/subset simulation引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据