中国出口集装箱运价指数影响因素的实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of China Container Freight Index
李琳1
作者信息
- 1. 中国海洋大学 经济学院 青岛 266100
- 折叠
摘要
2020年,新型冠状病毒感染的流行,中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)"疯涨"且不断创造历史新高.首先运用集合经验模态分解法将CCFI序列分解为若干分量,重构后得到高频部分、低频部分和趋势项,其次采用主成分分析法从选取的8个宏观影响因素中提取出两个公共因子,定义为国际贸易环境和中国出口形势,分别研究不同频率下的CCFI指数与影响因素之间的关系,探究病毒流行前后CCFI指数影响因素的变化.结果显示:CCFI的短期波动项在感染前不受宏观因素影响,感染流行后表现为正相关;病毒流行后CCFI的重大事件影响项与国际贸易环境由负相关变成正相关,与中国出口形势始终保持正相关;CCFI的长期趋势项与宏观因素在病毒流行前后均呈现正相关,且在病毒流行后正相关程度有所提高.
Abstract
Since the outbreak of COVID-19,China container freight index has been growing and reached a record high continuously.This paper aims to explore the changes of influencing factors of CCFI around 2020.I first decompose the CCFI sequence into several components by EEMD method,then reconstruct as high-frequency part,low-frequency part and trend term.Secondly,I extract two common factors from the eight macro influencing factors by using principal component analysis and name them as international trade environment and Chinese export situation.Finally,I study the relationship between CCFI of different frequencies and influencing factors around 2020.The empirical results indicate that the short-term fluctuation term of CCFI is not affected by macro influencing factors,but after COVID-19,it appears positive correlation.The relationship between ENV and the impact term of major events changes from negative correlation to positive correlation around COVID-19,and the relationship between SIT and the impact term of major events has always maintained a positive correlation.The long-term tendency of CCFI has maintained a positive correlation with both macro influencing factors,and the degree of correlation increased after COVID-19.
关键词
中国出口集装箱运价指数/集合经验模态分解/主成分分析法/运价影响因素/新型冠状病毒感染Key words
China container freight index/Ensemble empirical mode decomposition/Principal component analysis/Influencing factors of freight rate/COVID-19引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据