Research on hazard assessment of tropical cyclones and their system energy equivalence
Tropical cyclones(TCs)are accompanied by multiple hazards,which pose serious threats to human life and property and the development of regional society and economy both on the ocean and the coast of China.For a long time,the research on single-hazard research of TCs already matures,while comprehensive research on multi-hazard is still insufficient.For the purpose of multi-hazard assessment of TCs,this study proposes the concept of"Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Vortex System(TOAVS)"and its System Energy Equivalence(SEE),and also proposes a calculation method of Hazard Index of multi-hazard system of TCs and"the most significant hazard"concept.TOAVS emphasizes both atmospheric system where the TCs located and ocean system underlying surface and upper ocean,associated with a variety of hazards like storm wind,storm rainfall,storm surge,storm wave and storm current.Seldom studies are discussed from the perspective of system energy in multi-hazard research.Due to the difficulty in calculating the system energy,this study proposes the concept and calculation method of SEE equivalent to the intensity of the system.Finally,the SEE of the TOAVS in the ocean was calculated by using the data of TCs in China from 1979 to 2018.Then,analyzed its probability and calculated the hazard index.This study demonstrates that(1)The SEE of the TOAVS ranges from 3.733×106～2.445×107 J/m2,which shows a significant decreasing trend and turn to a significant increasing trend after 1999.(2)The Weibull distribution was the best-fit probability distribution.(3)The dangerous of TOAVS was at the medium and above hazard level.The hazard index of most significant hazard is 0.936,at the high hazard level,its corresponding SEE and probability are 1.273×107 J/m2 and 0.735×10-7 respectively.(4)The most significant hazard is equal to return periods of 2-year to 4-year level after comparing with return period estimation in traditional hazard research,it deserves more attention in disaster prevention and mitigation.This study presents a new method for multi-hazard assessment of TCs and provides a scientific reference for regional disaster prevention and mitigation.
system energy equivalencetropical cycloneshazard assessment
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
