Study on the risk measurement and evaluation of the whole life cycle of mangrove carbon sink project from the perspective of the supply subject:Take the Zhanjiang mangrove afforestation project as an example
Accelerating the development of marine carbon sink for the construction of the harmonious development of human and nature beautiful world is of great significance.Mangrove as an important source of marine carbon sink,because of its strong carbon sequestration and carbon storage capacity,has high ecological value and economic value.Speeding up the development of mangrove carbon sink is an important strategic choice for addressing climate change.Based on the triangular fuzzy number and structural equation,this paper constructs the risk measurement model of the mangrove carbon sink project,selects Zhanjiang mangrove afforestation project as a representative project in China,and uses the net present value method and the positive equivalent method to conduct empirical comparative analysis to measure the impact of risk factors on project value and investment decision-making,so as to help the high-quality development of the mangrove carbon sink.The results show that:(1)There are certain risks in the development of mangrove carbon sink projects.The risks in each stage,from high to low,are verification and filing stage,decision-making stage,construction stage,operation and maintenance stage and design stage.The technical risk at the verification and filing stage,the policy risk at the decision-making stage,the market risk at the construction stage,the market risk at the operation and maintenance stage and the human behavior risk at the design stage are the types of risks with great influence in each stage.(2)The occurrence of risks will reduce the values of mangrove carbon sink projects.Compared with the traditional net present value method,the positive equivalent method is more consistent with the development and operation of mangrove carbon sink projects.
mangrove carbon sink projectrisk measurement and evaluationsupplierfull life cycle
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
