Simulation of land use pattern and protective development in county coastal zone:a case study of Ningbo
Coastal has significant land use changes under the background of high-intensity development.Clarifying the evolution laws and driving factors of land use can provide important basis for optimizing land use structure and rational utilization of coastal resources.Based on 7 periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020,land use transfer analysis,land use intensity index,geographic detector model and other methods were used to systematically analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of land use pattern in Ningbo coastal.At the same time,CA-Markov model is used to simulate the land use pattern of Ningbo coastal in 2025 and 2030.The results indicate that:(1)The main types of land use in the coastal of Ningbo are forest and farmland,and the pattern of land use evolution is obvious,in which the area of farmland is decreasing continuously,the area of forest,grassland,water and unused land has a small fluctuation,the area of construction land has increased rapidly.The area of forest,grassland,water area,and unused land fluctuates slightly,and the area of construction land increases rapidly.(2)The intensity of land use in the coastal of Ningbo continues to increase,with a clear growth trend in the northern part of the study area,while the growth rate in the southern part is slow.(3)Terrain and slope are the main natural factors affecting land use changes in the coastal of Ningbo,but the degree of influence is constantly weakening;Density of GDP and population are the main socio-economic influencing factors,and their impact intensity is gradually increasing;The main types of interaction between factors are dual factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement,with the strongest interaction between socio-economic factors and natural factors such as altitude and slope.(4)In the future,the areas with severe land use changes in the coastal of Ningbo will be concentrated on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay,the northeast of Xiangshan County and the south of Ninghai County.The ecological protection scenario can maximize the stability of land use structure and effectively alleviate the conflict between people and land.
land use patterndriving factorsforecastgeographical detectorCA-Markovcoastal zone of Ningbo