Predictability of the upper ocean heat content in a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system

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外文摘要：Upper ocean heat content(OHC)has been widely recognized as a crucial precursor to high-impact climate variability,especially for that being indispensable to the long-term memory of the ocean.Assessing the predictability of OHC using state-of-the-art climate models is invaluable for improving and advancing climate forecasts.Recently developed retrospective forecast experiments,based on a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system,offer a great opportunity to comprehensively explore OHC predictability.Our results indicate that the skill of actual OHC predictions varies across different oceans and diminishes as the lead time of prediction extends.The spatial distribution of the actual prediction skill closely resembles the corresponding persistence skill,indicating that the persistence of OHC serves as the primary predictive signal for its predictability.The decline in actual prediction skill is more pronounced in the Indian and Atlantic oceans than in the Pacific Ocean,particularly within tropical regions.Additionally,notable seasonal variations in the actual prediction skills across different oceans align well with the phase-locking features of OHC variability.The potential predictability of OHC generally surpasses the actual prediction skill at all lead times,highlighting significant room for improvement in current OHC predictions,especially for the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.Achieving such improvements necessitates a collaborative effort to enhance the quality of ocean observations,develop effective data assimilation methods,and reduce model bias.

外文关键词：

ocean heat contentprediction skillretrospective forecast experiment

作者：

Ting Liu、Wenxiu Zhong

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作者单位：

State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China

Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China

School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China

基金：

National Key R&D Program of ChinaScientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural ResourcesNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaFund of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)

项目编号：

2020YFA0608803QNYC210142105052SML2021SP310311021001

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1007/s13131-023-2239-x

海洋学报(英文版)

中国海洋学会

海洋学报(英文版)

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.323

ISSN：0253-505X

年,卷(期)：2024.43(1)

参考文献量39