Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean
Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters.China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years,which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level.The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon dis-aster prediction.Therefore,it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations.In this paper,18 671 synthetic typhoons were con-structed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation,and the parameters such as the start and end position,frequency of occurrence,travel speed and direction of the synthet-ic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons.The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of his-torical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons,a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.
kernel density estimationEmpirical Path Modelsynthetic typhoonNorthwest Pacific Ocean
万方数据
维普
