Research and application of constructing a coastal erosion risk prediction model based on LSTM
Shoreline erosion prediction is one of the hot issues in coastal dynamic geomorphology research.Based on the long short term memory(LSTM),the data of shoreline,water depth,intertidal zone width,and wave and tid-al current for ERA5 inversion clollected from 1985 to 2023 near Sheyang County of Jiangsu Province were used to construct a coastal erosion risk prediction model in this study.The prediction model could accurately predict the nonlinear/linear change trend of accelerated erosion,stable erosion or coastline sedimentation.The results showed that the increasing of wave and tidal currents was the main factor of coastal erosion in Sheyang area in recent 20 years under the condition of sand source reduction.Besides,an ideal experiment of coastal protection activities was conducted by using the prediction model,and the protection effects of coastal reinforcement,wave dissipation and weak current engineering were discussed.The results showed that the protection effect of coastal reinforcement is the best,and wave dissipation is better than weak current.The prediction model is reasonable,and has great applica-tion value and development potential.
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